A Study On Airport Risk Management Of Consequences Of Flight Delay

Safety is very important for civil aviation and civil airports bear a heavy responsibility of civilaviation safety. Civil aviation is a complicated system involving lots of departments. If a bunch offlight delays occur at same time, civil airports will be disordered and the airport safety will be at risk.In this paper, current situation of airport risk management has been discussed, and the influences offlight delays on airport risk have been analyzed. Then, an index system of airport risk assessmentunder the condition of flight delays has been established, and some methods of risk analysis andsafety evaluation have been studied.Firstly, the current situation of airport risk management and flight delays of civil aviationindustry in our country has been analyzed. The overseas and domestic research status of the issuesincluding flight delays, aviation safety, safety management system and risk analysis and evaluationhas been summarized. Some methods of risk evaluating, such as ETA and FTA, have been generalized.Furthermore, causality between airport risk and fight delay has been elaborated by usingaccident-causing theory.Secondly, from the aspects of staff subsystem, facility subsystem, environment subsystem andrisk management system, an index system of airport risk assessment under the condition of flightdelays has been set up based on the theory of MMEM.Thirdly, as the main part of this paper, the risk indexes have been classified by using the methodof cluster analysis in statistics and combined with the fuzzy theory. Also, an analysis of airport riskunder the condition of flight delays is included.Based on the theory of Bayesian network, a topology model of airport risk evaluation under thecondition of flight delays has been developed. By analyzing the comments of experts, every knot ofthe system has been renewed. Finally, by using the software GeNIe, the model of risk evaluation hasbeen set up, and has been proved by reversed analysis and sensibility analysis.Since civil aviation system is a dynamic，multi-variable，open and complicated system，there arelots of uncertain factors and complex logics. And lots of qualitative indexes, such as personal qualityand management level, cannot be explicated by numerical values. However, the theory of Bayesiannetwork has a tremendous advantage in this respect, which is the best evaluation method of airportrisk under the condition of flight delays.