| In recent years, the complex air pollution issue such as haze, ozone, has aroused a great deal of attention in society, which cause deterioration of air quality and serious damage to public health. VOCs, as an important precursor of PM2.5 and O3, its emissions are not accurate statistically, besides, control technologies are lack of comprehensive evaluation at present, leading to many problems on VOCs control. Based on 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, this study carry out research on characteristics of industrial VOCs emissions, evaluation of control technology, projection on future emissions and scenario analysis, etc, in order to provide theoretical support and scientific advice for the future control of VOCs.First of all, a bottom-up approach was adopted, and the’emission factor method’ was used to construct source categorization, including 81 kinds of emission sources. Combining industrial activity data with emission factors, using GIS technology, combined with population density, a high-resolution (1km×1km) spatial industrial emission inventory was developed from 2011 to 2013 in China. It is estimated that the total emissions of industrial VOCs were 15.343 Tg for the year 2011, which increased to 29.356 Tg for the year 2013, with annual average growth rate of 38.3%; Use of VOCs-containing products is the main contributor, comprising 58.4%-75.4%. Industrial VOCs emissions in China are mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal regions. The industrial VOCs emissions in East China were far more than other regions, accounting for 37.9% of national total emission in 2013. The top three average industrial VOCs emissions per square kilometer were Shanghai, Tianjin, and Beijing. The top three average industrial VOCs emissions per capita were Shanghai, Tianjin, and Zhejiang. A quantitative approach, the bootstrap simulation and Monte Carlo sampling, was utilized to analyze uncertainties in sector -based Industrial VOCs emissions estimates. The results show that there exist relatively medium uncertainties, with a 95% confidence interval of -33 to +62%. The 95% confidence interval of production of VOCs, storage and transport, industrial processes using VOCs as raw materials and use of VOCs-containing products range from -39% to +64%,-38% to +58%,-30% to +45%,-41% to +80%, respectively.Secondly, in view of the application scope and status of VOCs control technologies, the comprehensive evaluation index system has been established taken several factors into considerations including major equipment status evaluation index, technical and economic performance evaluation index, environmental performance evaluation index and management evaluation index, concretely containing 21 indexes, such as system stability, technical maturity, technical availability and so on. With the aid of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), an evaluation system for VOCs control technologies was established. Taking furniture manufacturing industry as an example, rotary adsorption-concentration and combustion technology was assessed as the best available technology.Finally, based on VOCs emission inventory and evaluation of control technology, by applying the scenario analysis method, VOCs emission reduction potential was studied from 2020 to 2050. In the basis scenario, industrial VOCs emissions from 2020 to 2050 increased by 13.3% to 361.3% relative to 2013. In the moderate scenario, VOCs can be reduced by 16.9% to 55.4% compared to the basis scenario, in the advanced scenario, VOCs can be reduced by 45.8% to 84.2%. Use of VOCs-containing products is still the main contributor, in 2020, it contributes 75.4%,77.8% and 75.7% in three scenarios respectively, in 2030, it accounts for 75.4%,71.7% and 68.6% separately, in 2050, it comprises 75.4%,71.5% and 69.6%. |
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