Research On The Interaction Influence And Spatial Effect Of Carbon Emission,economic Growth And Industrial Structure

Since the reform and opening up,China has been expanding its industrial scale,improving its industrial system,and its economy has achieved long-term rapid growth.However,rapid development is inevitably accompanied by excessive energy consumption,leading to large greenhouse gas emissions.Entering the 21 st century,the issue of carbon dioxide emissions has received close attention from countries around the world.In order to slow down the growth rate of carbon emissions,the 14 th Five-Year Plan has included "carbon neutrality" and "emission peak" in the five-year plan for economic and social development for the first time.Therefore,studying the interactive effects and spatial effects of carbon emissions,economic growth and industrial structure is of great significance to accelerate the process of low carbon emission reduction in China and achieve regional green and coordinated development.Firstly,based on Chinese provincial panel data,the development status of carbon emissions,economic growth and industrial structure are measured respectively.Secondly,energy carbon emissions,gross regional product and industrial structure advanced index are selected,a panel vector autoregressive model is constructed,and GMM parameter estimation,impulse response and variance decomposition are applied to empirically investigate the interactive effects of carbon emissions,economic growth and industrial structure.Thirdly,the spatial factors are further incorporated into the study,and the share of secondary industry is selected to measure the industrial structure.The global and local spatial correlation analysis is applied to examine the spatial correlation among carbon emissions,economic growth and industrial structure.Construction of Spatial Durbin Model(SDM)to explore the spatial effects of economic growth and industrial structure on carbon emissions.Finally,the research findings are summarized and corresponding countermeasures are proposed.The research results show that,first,at the national level,economic growth can drive the development of advanced industrial structure and there is a long-term dynamic coupling relationship with carbon emissions,but a good interaction mechanism between industrial structure and carbon emissions has not yet been formed.At the regional level,carbon emissions,economic growth and industrial structure in east and central regions basically achieve coordinated development.Economic growth in western regions has the strongest effect on carbon emissions,but the linkage between the three variables is weak.Second,carbon emissions,economic growth and industrial structure all have significant spatial correlations,but different regions have different spatial correlation patterns,and there are differences in spatial spillover effects.Among them,economic growth significantly promotes carbon emissions in the region,and inhibits carbon emissions in neighboring regions but not significantly.Industrial structure significantly aggravates carbon emissions in the region,and also has a significant positive pulling effect on neighboring regions,and the indirect effect is larger than the direct effect.