Characteristics And Prediction Research Of Automobile E- Missions In Shandong Province Based On COPERT4 Model

The rapid development of social economy makes automobile numbers increase by an average annual of 20.42% in Shandong province in the past 13 years, which leads to a serious pollution of exhaust of automobile emerges. Automobile exhaust contributes up to 40～70% of urban air pollution that cause huge negative impact on residents.In this paper, the COPERT 4 model is used to calculate the emission factors and emissions of automobile’s CO, NOx, NMVOC, PM and other major pollution in Shandong province, and the emission factor simulation result was confirmed by experimental datas. The results showed that, COPERT 4 model was suitable for stimulating Shandong automobile’s CO emission factors. Various emission factors of automobiles in State Ⅲ have been greatly reduced compared to State I. Takeing heavy-duty diesel trucks with NOx for example, the emission factor in State Ⅲ decreased 42.9% than previous State Ⅰ.Control effect of PM was more obvious,PM factor in State Ⅲ reduced by 75% compared to the previous State I. CO emission factors in State Ⅳ gasoline passenger cars reduced 96.8% compared the previous State Ⅰ. Using vehicle mileages and the number of automobile to calculate pollutant emissions in 2000,2005,2007,2011,2013,CO, NOx, NMVOC and PM emissions from Shandong province were 323,200 tons,17.69 tons,69,100 tons,08,000 tons to 999,200 tons in 2000, which in 2013 were 764,200 tons,238,100 tons and 26,600 tons, respectively, an increase of 209%,332%,245% and 233%, respectively, with an average annual growth of 9.07%,11.91%,9.98%,9.68%.Emissions characteristics of CO, NMVOC, NOx and PM sub-models in the past 13years:the larger CO emissions were small passenger cars and light trucks, the average annual emissions accounted for 35.19% and 19.64%. CO emissions from passenger cars were increasing except buses. CO emissions from heavy trucks were decreasing. NOx emissions generated mainly by trucks, when the major emissions were from light trucks in 2000, which emissions accounted for 35.32%, followed by medium trucks which share was 26.38%. NOx emissions was mainly generated by heavy duty trucks, accounting for a 47.71%, while in the passenger cars, NOx emissions from small passenger are larger, share was 20.26%. Only a small passenger car and heavy duty truck in the annual growth of emissions share rate, NOx emissions share rate of other catgries were decreasing. Emissions from minivans were smallest.NMVOC emissions in the larger share rate was small passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks, in 2013 accounted for 55.13% and 22.16%. In the past 13 years, NMVOC emissions from automobiles were reduced but small passenger cars and heavy goods vehicles. PM emissions were mainly from trucks especially heavy trucks. PM emissions from heavy duty trucks was the most serious, and heavy-duty trucks PM share rate increased, while in 2013 accounted for 55.83%. PM emissions from other types of vehicles were slowly decreasing. We should focus on the control of small passenger cars, heavy duty trucks and light duty trucks in the automotive pollution control.Using the original vehicle data of 2002-2013 to establish the various predictable of various GM (1,1) model and predict the car ownership in Shandong Province during 2014-2018 with the combination of extrapolation forecasting method and linear prediction method.The results showed that the total amount of automobile in Shandong Province, in 2018, are 2967.2359 million. Small passenger cars are 2538.6503 million which accounted for 85.56% in 2018. Light duty trucks account for 7.01% while heavy duty trucks account for 3.63%. Average annual growth rate of small passenger cars and heavy duty trucks are 14.40% and 14.37%. Medium-sized trucks and minivans are negative growth, growth rates are-2.00% and-20.99%.Using COPERT 4 model to calculate the emission of each forecast year’s,2014-2018, CO, NOx, NMVOC, PM2.5. The results showed that, in 2018, the emissions of CO, NOx, NMVOC, PM2.5 are 1,026,993 tons,152,013 tons,466,532 tons and 23,949 tons. However, with the implementation of stricter State IV and State V emission standards, in the next five years, the emission of CO, NMVOC, NOx and PM2.5 would annually decrease 10.62%,11.74%,13.16% and 5.12%. Compared to 2013’s, NOx and NMVOC emissions would reduce 39% and 36%. And the total emission of Lead, Chromium, Cadmium, Selenium, Copper, Zinc, Nickel had been predicted.