Energy Consumption Forecast And Its Impact Factors In Dingxi City

Energy is an important foundation for human survival and development.Energy security is related to the country’s social stability,economic development and ecological security.In recent years,the rapid development of China’s economy has led to a sharp increase in energy consumption in China.As the world’s largest energy consumer,23% of global energy consumption in 2015 was generated by China’s energy consumption.In order to actively respond to the important spirit of the National“Energy Development 13 th Five-Year Plan” and accelerate the achievement of the grand goal of “to control China’s total energy consumption by 2020 to within 5 billion tons of standard coal” mentioned in the plan.Studying energy consumption-related issues in various regions is of great significance to the country’s great actions to promote energy conservation and emission reduction.As an important province in the west of China,Gansu Province has crossed the Yangtze River and two of the top ten national parks are located in Gansu,and it is an important golden node,economic and trade center and energy channel of the “Belt and Road”.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to pay attention to energy consumption in Gansu Province and promote energy conservation and emission reduction and realize the strategic goal of ecological civilization.As an important channel of the “ Silk Road ” and an ecologically fragile area in the central part of Gansu Province,Dingxi City can study its energy consumption and influencing factors,which can provide important reference value for the sustainable development of Dingxi City and similar ecologically fragile areas.This paper applies the population,economic and energy consumption data of Dingxi City from 2005 to 2015,and analyzes and predicts the future energy consumption of Dingxi City by establishing Elman neural network prediction model and grey GM(1,1)prediction model.Through the establishment of STIRPAT expansion model,The relationship,trends and impacts of population,economy andenergy consumption in Dingxi City are obtained and put forward measures and recommendations to achieve "energy saving and emission reduction" and develop clean energy industry.First,analyze the development status of population,economy and energy consumption in Dingxi City.Through the analysis of the development status of population,economy and energy consumption in Dingxi City from 2005 to 2015,it is found that:(1)The number of permanent residents in Dingxi City decreases slightly year by year,while GDP,GDP per capita and urbanization rate increase year by year;(2)The annual average ratio of the total industrial production value of Dingxi City to total GDP is 44.2%,followed by the primary industry 32.3%,and finally the secondary industry 23.4%;(3)The first industry in Lintao County has the highest GDP,the lowest is Zhang County;the second industry GDP in Anding District and Longxi County ranks high,and the GDP of Tongwei County,Weiyuan County and Zhang County is at a low level;The industry has the highest GDP,followed by Longxi County,Lintao County,Tongwei County,Minxian County,Weiyuan County and Zhang County;(4)The ratio of the GDP of industrial enterprises above designated size to the GDP of Dingxi City is basically in a steady upward trend;(5)The highest energy consumption of industrial enterprises above designated size in all counties and districts of Dingxi City was transferred from Longxi County to Anding District to Tongwei County.Lintaoi County has been at a medium level,and Weiyuan County has been at a lower-middle level,while Zhang County and Min County have been Lower.Secondly,according to the development status and characteristics of Dingxi City,the Elman neural network prediction model and the gray GM(1,1)prediction model are established by combining relevant references and data,and the future energy consumption of Dingxi City is analyzed and compared by Matlab R2016 b software.It is found that the prediction result of the gray GM(1,1)prediction model is better than the Elman neural network prediction model.Therefore,the gray GM(1,1)prediction model is selected to calculate the future energy consumption of Dingxi City,and the energy of Dingxi City 2016-2026 Consumption is growing steadily.Finally,the STIRPAT expansion model was established,and five indicators including the population size,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,energy consumption intensity and GDP of industrial enterprises above designated size in total GDP were selected as the influencing factors.Correlation analysis,multi-collinearity test andridge regression analysis were carried out through the improved STIRPAT model,and the influencing factors and influence degree of the energy consumption in Dingxi City were obtained.It is found that except for the population and the intensity of energy consumption,which have a negative impact on the increase of energy consumption,all other factors have a positive impact on the increase of energy consumption in Dingxi City.According to the actual situation of Dingxi City,in order to achieve the goal of “energy saving and emission reduction”,it is best to start from the development of clean energy industry,build green energy base and popularize environmental education,and implement energy conservation “reward”.