Research On PM2.5Prediction Methods For EIA Of Construction Projects

Environmental impact assessment(EIA） plays an important role in controllingthe industrial pollutants from the source,and is also one important step to startindustrial construction projects. The better implementation of EIA is crucial toeffectively manage the industrial pollution source and to achieve both economicdevelopment and environment quality improvement. Along with the furtherimplementation of environmental management, industrial pollution source needs morestrict EIAcontrol. The newAmbientAir Quality Standard (GB3095—2012） releasedon February29th,2012also included PM2.5and ozone. In September2013, the StateCouncil released Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Action Plan. Then Ministry ofEnvironmental Protection of China made regulations to call for more strictimplementation of the emission standard for fine particulate matter and its precursorsin the Ambient Air Quality Standard, and to make assessment on the pollutants. Thismarks the change of environmental protection requirements of Chinese governemnt,from total amount control to both total amount control and quality control, from oncepollution control to both once pollution control and twice pollution control. Industrialpollution is one key source to the production of PM2.5. However, the EnvironmentalImpact Assessment Guidelines—Atmospheric Environment has not clearly identifiedthe requirements and methods to predict the impact of PM2.5, and there is not muchsimilar research conducted.The study on the air quality prediction models has provided effective technicalsupport for environmental impact assessment. Typicall international air quality models,including medium and small—scale regulation model, integrated regional model andglobal model, have been widely applied in urban once contaminant modeling andenvironmental impact assessment.Based on the study of various air quality prediction models in China and abroad,this paper analyzed the differences among AREMOD, ADMS, CALPUFF and otherair diffusion models in the light of air pollutants diffusion laws. The findings indicatedthat CALPUFF model is applicable to the research of PM2.5diffusion prediction in theEIA of construction projects. Then, deeper analysis on the principle, structure,characteristics, parameters of CALPUFF model was made, and typical cases wereselected. Additionally, PM2.5impact prediction on one power plant in the selected cases was conducted in five modelling scenarios. The results showed that differentparameters applied in CALPUFF model would affect the prediction results. This paperalso studied and revised the requirements of the parameters used in the CALPUFFmodel.Cases showed that CALPUFF could meet the requirements of currentguidelines on PM2.5prediction. In particular, through the analysis of the sensitivity ofparameters in the CALPUFF model, O3and NH3were thought to be important factorsin affecting PM2.5diffusion prediction, which was same as the conclusions from largescale model prediction. Finally, the identification of PM2.5prediction method inconstruction projects, can provide technical support to further control pollution source,to rationally make the layout of construction projects, to reduct the industrial PM2.5production and emission from the source, and to improve the air quality.