The Study Of A Share Companies’ Fiannce Risk Models In China

With the continuous development of China’s domestic economy and the increasingly fierce competition between enterprises, examples of enterprises fall in financial difficulties due to the financial crisis is also increasing. Financial information of listed companies is public and the number of such financial problems of listed companies keeps increasingly, thus, listed companies’ financial early warning research has become an important issue from the both academics and practitioners perspective. An enterprise always starts off with a healthy looking financial record, and then it gets worse, even eventually it becomes bankrupt or financial crisis. How can we prevent financial risks and kill those risks before it gets blown out of proportion is not only something that draws the attention of enterprises, but also the interested parties and governmental supervision department. Therefore, we need to create financial risk alert models to get detailed information of the financial status of an enterprise, so we can prevent the financial risk of a company.The construction of financial risk models has also been developing, however, most of the models only define financial risk from a theoretical side and most of the enterprises have been studied are all enterprises that are have already had financial risks occurred. There has never been any research on enterprises that has a healthy financial record. This way we cannot predict whether a financial risk will occur, causing the enterprises to be vulnerable or even go bankrupt against financial risks. Therefore, having alerts beforehand is the best way to neutralize a financial risk.This thesis is based on A-share listed companies to carry out the main object of study. Whether the A-share listed companies have been given a special treatment is as the standard for financial crisis.35first ST companies and the corresponding35non-ST pairing enterprises during2009-2011have been selected to constitute the modeling samples.15ST companies and its corresponding15non-ST pairing enterprise between January1,2012and June30,2012have been selected to be the samples tested group, and it is used to verify the accuracy of the prediction for the early warning model. The thesis adopts the univariate analysis, Fisher determine model and Logistic regression analysis. It studies the indicators of profitability, asset operational capacity, solvency, cashflow and development capabilities. With the assistance of SPSS statistical software, the study applies the normality test and the test of significance looking for the indicators for Logistic model and the ones with a strong sign of the indicating the company runs into a financial crisis, ultimately building a financial crisis early warning model. From the accuracy of the model, the closer it gets to the special treatment year the more accurate the model becomes. The year before the special treatment year the model can be most accurate. Looking at the effect of the alert, the risk alert model in the thesis received some good results and it has a decent amount of practical usage value.