| It has been 27 years since China developed its capital market.As of December 19,2016,the number of listed companies in the A share market in China has exceeded 3000.The“metabolism”in the last 30 years has made the A share market in China a general platform for the allocation of resources in China's economy.The market economy is constantly deepening,and the economic environment is continuously changing,and with them,China's listed companies are facing more and more fierce competitions.Competitions indicate risks and risks imply crises.The cases of financial crisis in China's listed companies are also emerging in an endless stream.The financial crisis of a listed company is not a transient result,but a gradual process.In this process there are signs that listed companies may be in a financial crisis.There are a variety of signs in this process before listed companies falling into financial crises.By quantifying these signs,and then trying to build a financial crisis early warning model to predict the financial crisis of listed companies,the loss of investors can be reduced,which is undoubtedly of a great practical value.In this paper,I choose China's A shares listed companies as research objects.Firstly,I sorted out and analyzed the relevant researchs at home and abroad,and expounded the theories and methods related to the financial crisis early warning.Secondly,I choose managers' behaviors as the perspective of this paper,analysed the influence of the managers' behaviors on enterprise financial situations,extracted the variables related to managers' behaviors,using Logistic regression method,and then built an early warning model of financial crisis based on managers' behaviors.Finally,I tested the modle,drawn the conclusion,gave some countermeasures,and analysed the limitations of this modle.The empirical result shows that the model built in this paper can to some extent predict the financial crisis of the listed companies. |
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