Simulating Land Use Change With Agent-based Model: A Case Study For Ecological Immigrant Region Of Guangxi

Land use change can mostly reflect the interaction between natural environmentand human directly. The realization of land use dynamic simulation can activelyassist the management of land resource. Jinqiao Village, Daan Town in HuanjiangCounty, which belongs to typical ecological immigrants district, located in sensitiveand fragile Karst area, the implementation of ecological immigration policy has agreat influence on local land use. Reviewed the relevant application of ecologicalimmigrantion, land use change and the agent-based model, Clarified the theory andmethod of agent, collected the household livelihoods, land use and geographical data.Based on agent model to construct land use dynamic simulation model of ecologicalimmigrants district. The main research contents and results are as follows:(1) Use household investigation and Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA),obtained the first-hand information and data of household basic characteristicsinformation, household livelihood, land use and the specific policies effect;(2) Analysis the effect of land use conditions and factors. In the view of theland use system complexity in ecological immigrants district, summarizes the effectsof land use and natural conditions, household characteristics and policy drivenfactors. Found that the changes of land use affected by these factors in differentextent;(3) Based on the review of agent model theory and method, characteristics ofNetLogo, combined with the analysis of the factors affecting land usechange, construct land use dynamic simulation model of ecological immigrantsdistrict. Taken6typical Tuns of Jinqiao Village, Daan Town in Huanjiang as the studyarea, the area is7.64km2, with the survey of farmers as the research object, determinethe land use field of farmers, make land use rules of farmers, simulate the land usesituation in2011with the land use of2004, analysis of the simulationresults. Space fitting degrees of farm land, rural residential, eucalyptus, the grasslandare67.87%,75.53%,69.97%,55.62%, respectively. The overall prediction results ofKappa coefficient is0.7997, the simulation results show that the system reaches acertain credibility. At the same time using the model to predict the land use in2018.Combination of3S technology and agent technology, the comprehensive analysisof the factors affecting the change of land use in ecological immigrationarea, combined with the characteristics of NetLogo platform, find the operationmethod of the model, realize the use of the model in ecological immigrantsdistrict, deepening the study of interaction between farmer and land use. Theagent-based model of land use dynamic simulation in Guangxi ecological immigrantsdistrict put out a new method of land use change simulation in Village or Tun.