Study On Land Use Dynamic Analysis And Simulation Method In Wuhan Ecological Green Wedge

With urbanization and industrialization speeding up,the population of cities grows and gathers unceasingly.Human activities change the terrestrial environment with unprecedented speed,range and spatial scale.The contradiction between finiteness and multisuitability of land resources and growing diversified needs of human is highlighted.Land use change has become a focus of common concern.How to rationally use limited land resources for a variety of production activities to achieve maximum economic and ecological benefits has become an imperative problem to be solved in land use study.Traditional analysis methods of land use change often use qualitative analysis methods or some quantitative models that don't have the capability of spatial interpretation and analyze the characteristics of land use change from a macro perspective.Spatial model can explain the process and driving mechanism of regional land change more clearly,and it can also help to understand the evolution process,trend and environmental influence of land use in depth.Wuhan is in the fast development period with rapid urban spatial expansion threaten ecological security.In this paper,we combine quantitative model with spatial model together taking ecological green wedge which is a natural landscape concentrated and ecologically sensitive area in Wuhan as study area to research land use dynamic analysis and simulation method.First,land use dynamic analysis index system and model is built from aspect of landscape pattern,dynamic,degree,structure of land use.to analyze land use status in 2016 and land use change during 2005-2015 in order to explore the mechanism of land use change in study area.Human activity intensity spatialization process is accomplished by building evaluation model of human activity intensity,we use logistic regression analysis to perform influence factor analysis of land use.Both Markov model and grey system model have been used to predict the demand of land use type of study area in 2020.On this basis,regarding CLUE-S model as framework,we design a simulation model on the spatio-temporal pattern of land use change,and use this model to simulate the land use scenario of study area in inertial development mode and policy restraint optimized mode in 2020.The experimental result shows the dynamic analysis index system and model built in this paper can fully exploit the characteristic and regularity of regional land use change,and comprehensively parse the course,reason and trend of land use change.It indicate that this method had some scientificity and guiding significance so that it can play an important guiding role in land use planning and management.