Simulation Study Of The Structure Of Urban And Rural Old-age Insurance System

The endowment insurance of our country has been to "three pillar" coordinated development direction of effort, but the reality is as the first pillar of the basic endowment insurance still bear the main endowment function, and the second pillar enterprise annuity and the third pillar personal commercial endowment insurance development level is not high."Three pillar" development is not reasonable, which leads the endowment insurance system development experience "bottleneck", old-age security ability can’t effectively play, difficult to satisfy people mutiple level endowment security requirements, improve the overall level of security. In addition, there are obvious differences in the pension system, between urban and rural areas, between different regions in our country, different groups have system stay in local segmentation, low level as a whole level,"fragmentized" serious trend. A variety of endowment insurance system coexist, go against the national plan as a whole and transferring, endowment insurance system of urban and rural integration is the trend of The Times. Therefore, it is necessary to the integration of urban and rural areas under the background of endowment insurance system structure of inquiry.The simulation research is in the basic of the design of the system structure of urban and rural endowment insurance system, reform design includes four aspects content:the system structure, security level, the responsibility sharing mechanism and financing mode. Urban and rural mutiple level endowment insurance system is established in different levels need to establish a proper between the proportional relation, the proportional relation usually use different levels offer pension replacement ratio to measure, the key lies in all levels to determine the security level and the level of the function of the endowment insurance to adapt. Therefore this paper simulation is mainly aimed at the level of security, endowment insurance system of the proportion of hierarchical structure mainly through security level to reflect, the other two proportional temporary not in-depth study.1、From the urban and rural endowment insurance system at home and abroad research situation of combing and analysis of the results can be seen, foreign endowment insurance system research mainly focus on operating mechanism and fund management and financial market conditions, some of the country’s successful experience and lessons, support pattern in different countries etc.; The domestic research is mainly about the system of economics analysis, pillar model of practice and feasibility, the pillar of the coordinated development and according to the analysis of a pillar, few from quantitative Angle to endowment insurance system and system level of security level of comprehensive study. Therefore, this paper aims to study the quantitative simulation method, in reference to previous research basis, mainly from the following three aspects has carried on the discussion and the analysis:The integration of urban and rural areas in China under the background of the reform of endowment insurance system design. Through the literature research, understand our country at present the endowment insurance system, based on the status of the typical national endowment insurance system theory and experience, from the financing mode, security level, the level structure and the main body of responsibility for four aspects, construct a adapt to China’s economic and social development level, with justice as the guide, the integration of urban and rural areas as the goal of endowment insurance system structure.2> All levels security level of system dynamics analysis. According to China’s national conditions, combining macro economics theory and statistics related to model assumptions, equation and parameters are defined and estimated. Through the endowment insurance system the complex social economic system to carry on the analysis, the factor can be divided into macroscopic economy, consumption, savings, population, capital accumulation and endowment insurance system internal five modules. Select per capita GDP and average wages of staff and workers, ginseng protect a worker to retire, ginseng protect the number of population, material capital, system support rate and pension spending more than30other variables, constructing the urban and rural endowment insurance system security level at every level of the system dynamics model. According to the four basic assumptions for system simulation, simulation get zero level of national fundamental annuities replacement ratio tends to24.1%, the first level of basic endowment insurance replacement rate at about37.65%, the second level of occupational pension substitution rate at about12.55%, the third level of personal boy endowment insurance replacement rate at about9.64%. All levels of the substitution rate ratio for:24.1% 37.65%:12.55%:9.64%, namely1:1.56:0.44:0.52.3、According to the simulation results of the model, to our country existing old-age insurance system of urban and rural integration to the transformation of endowment insurance system reform to provide policy proposal, urban and rural endowment insurance system to the existing system is not disruptive reconstruction, but in the present old-age security system on the basis of promoting and deepening.