The Relationship Based On VECM Model Between The Consumption Structure, Industrial Structure And Economic Growth In Jiangsu Province

Relationship between consumption structure, industrial structure and economicgrowth has always been the focus of the attention of the economic circles. However,the more normative analysis on this problem, were also less than empirical analysis,and the existing empirical analysis also mainly focuses on two issues: the first is aboutthe adjustment of consumption structure on the upgrading of industrial structure; thesecond is the upgrading of the industrial structure on economic growth. Split into twoproblems to study the relationship between the three, and cannot accurately reflect theintrinsic relationship between the consumption structure and industrial structure andeconomic growth. Based on this, treat the relationship between consumption structure,industrial structure and economic growth of the three as a system, from theoreticaland practical point of view, analyze the mechanism of the system, namely the threeintrinsic relationship.First, from a theoretical point of view, draw the conclusions that any two ofconsumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth influence each other.Then, select the Engel coefficient of urban residents and rural residents as ameasure of the indicators of the consumption structure, select the second industry, theproportion of tertiary industry in GDP as indicators to measure the industrial structure,after removing the effect of price changes of GDP in comparable prices as indicatorsto measure the economic growth of Jiangsu Province.Through the establishment ofthe VECM model, this paper further analyze the dynamic interaction between theconsumption structure and industrial structure and economic growth.Eventually, the co-integration test proved that there is a long-term equilibriumrelationship between consumption structure of Jiangsu Province and industrialstructure and economic growth; impulse response functions and variancedecomposition further illustrate the consumption structure and industrial structure andeconomic growth in the relationship between dynamic fluctuations in the short-term.Therefore, the theoretical analysis and empirical studies come to a unanimousconclusion, the consumption structure and industrial structure and economic growthsystem, a two-way causal relationship exists between any two. Adjustment ofconsumption structure, not only can stimulate the upgrading of industrial structure,but also to further promote economic growth; Similarly, the upgrading of industrial structure, promote economic growth, in turn, affect the adjustment of consumptionstructure; economic growth also help consumption structure adjustment and upgradingof industrial structure.