China FDI Temporal Evolution And Impact Mechanism

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a result between multinational company investment demand and the environment of the host country’s economic as well as its policy,and it is an important power to promote regional economic growth.The scale of FDI expands unceasingly in china,but the unbalance spatial distribution intensify the regional disparity of the economic and social development.Using FDI reasonable and make the special-temporal of FDI Optimization have great significance to promote regional economic development.This paper use long time series date of provincial to analysis the Spatial-temporal Evolution features of china FDI,import Contracted FDI and build model to analysis Contracted FDI implementation rate in China,and combine Spatial autocorrelation method with geographic concentration index method to quantitative the autocorrelation and concentration of china FDI,Then analysis its Effect Mechanism.On the basis, builded spatial analysis model,empirical research on the Spatial-temporal Evolution factors of FDI in China from1985to2011with the OLS and the Geographically weighted regression model, Contractive analysis the change of each variable impact between1998and2011,then get the enlightenment to improve The level of FDI,optimize the spatial pattern of FDI and promote the regional economic growth.The main conclusions show as follows:(1) The utilization of FDI process in china presents obvious periodic and differences. Can be divided into three stage:Beginning and exploring stage(1979-1991),Rapid growth stage (1992-1999),Stable growth phase (2000-),FDI has experienced the process from low levels, rapid growth to stable growth;the number of Projects has changed greatly,but The mean amount of FDI Projects growth periodic;FDI distribution from the labor-intensive Industry Turns to The second industry,and then the third industry catch up with the second industry and share more;Initially,FDI mainly derived from Hong Kong,macau and Taiwan,then mainly derived from Asian,few derived from Other continents,Hong Kong is The most important source region. Differences:Contracted FDI fluctuate Obviously,the used FDI growth Smoothly.there are large gap between used FDI and Contracted FDI,the growth rate of Contracted FDI more Faster than the used FDI(2)The temporal variation show that:The scale of Provincial FDI expands unceasingly,The equilibrium of Provincial FDI are improveing;In The three regional,the proportion of FDI gradually reduces in The eastern,Contrary in the Central and West,but there are great gap between the three regions.The spatial evolution show that:The spatial equilibrium degree of FDI in China is increasing,and the centralized tendency is more obvious.the implementation rate of provincial contract FDI are difference in spatial,and the implementation capability is low.The geographic concentration index of FDI in China is falling constantly, and the spatial concentration Reduce gradually.There are strong spatialautocorrelation and Heterogeneity in the spatial evolution of provincial FDI in china,and more provinces become the hotspot for FDI.(3)The policy,market,cost,social environmental and concentration are mainly factors affect the Spatial-temporal evolution of FDI in china.The analysis result of OLS and Geographically Weighted Regression show that the cumulative effects, economic conditions, infrastructure level,labor costs,policy environment and business environment are mainly influencingfactors.The effects of the influencefactor shave a significant spatial heterogeneity and change over time,which Performance in two respects:First is the variable degree of change,among which the impacts of the GDP,density of traffic line,average salary,the proportion of the tertiary industry,number of state-level economic and technological development zone to the change of FDI are bigger,and the technical support and the influence of the cumulative effect are decline, meanwhile the improvementof infrastructure level is the most significant effect to promote the growth of FDI.Second,the variables effect difference in space and change constantly,and the effect of the same variable in space have obvious difference,which change along with the vary of observation date and has a tendency to expand.(4)The enlightenment to improve the level of FDI,optimize the spatial pattern of FDI and promote the regional economic growth include as follows:Firstly,raise the realization rate of contractFDI;Secondly,improve regional investment environment;Thirdly,coordinate the regional development;Finaly, attract FDI rationally.