The Spatial Statistical Analysis On The Difference Of The Development Of China’s Regional Circulation Industry

Circulation industry is a connecting bridge and link of production and consumption and also a barometer of economic health. Over the last more than30years since reform and opening up, China’s circulation industry has made rapid development and fruitful results along with the rapid economic development and deepening market-oriented reform. Circulation industry has gradually shifted from social reproduction of the "end of the industry" to "leading industry" as the pilot strength to guide the production, consumption and economic operation, and its role in economic and social development has become increasingly prominent.As one of the developing countries, China is very unbalanced in its regional economic development. In the past we are more concerned about the imbalance of economic development and the imbalance in the manufacturing sector in terms of industry. However, as the central and western regions undertake the transfer of manufacturing from the east regions, manufacturing disparities between regions may be gradually narrowing, and as an important part of the services, circulation industry may be gradually expanding its regional disparities. This is because the eastern regions are significantly better than the central and western regions in both innate and acquired conditions. Due to the important role of circulation industry on economic development, the existence of differences in regional development will affect the overall imbalance of China’s economy and sustainable development of economy. So exploring influencing factors on Regional Difference of circulation industry development is particularly necessary and urgent.This article conducts a study mainly on regional difference of circulation industry development in China, choosing total and per capita circulation industry added value as important variable indicators to measure regional differences of circulation industry development, and selected panel data of China’s31provinces from2005to2011. First of all, we study specifically on the regional difference in the status of circulation industry, distribution pattern and its evolution path from both the traditional measurement method and measurement of spatial statistical methods. Theil coefficient decomposition and calculation results show that between2005and2011China’s regional differences in the overall development of circulation industry showed a steady downward trend. The current difference between the area is the main part of the regional difference of circulation industry development in China; further analysis on the internal differences of three regions showed that the differences of the development of circulation industry in the western regions is the greatest, followed by east and central regions. Analysis of gravity center of circulation industry and population showed that the trajectory of the gravity center of circulation industry presents different characteristics compared with population distributions. The differences of circulation industry between the eastern and western further expanded from2005to2011. In addition, compared with the gravity center of population distribution, the gravity center of China’s circulation industry is more deviated from China’s geography geometry center, which also describes that the spatial distribution of China’s circulation industry is in extremely uneven state. ESDA methods reveal that the regional circulation industry does have positive spatial autocorrelation, which is increasing gradually, and it shows a certain degree of accumulation characteristics on the spatial distribution with a degree of "club" phenomenon.Secondly, from both the traditional panel data models and spatial panel data models and country as a whole as well as the eastern, central and western regions, we conduct empirical analysis respectively on the main factors influencing the differences of the development of regional circulation industry. From the country as a whole, in the traditional panel data model and spatial panel data model, the level of consumption, urbanization, marketization and the proportion of tertiary industry have passed the test of significance, while the coefficient of the level of investment in fixed assets is not significant, and the parameter estimates are similar. But the spatial panel data model also reveals the fact that China’s regional circulation industry development are closely linked with random shock of circulation industry development in surrounding provinces, which cannot be found in traditional panel data model. Factors affecting an area’s circulation industry will also have diffusion effect on other peripheral areas’circulation industry development, or you can call the spatial indirect spillover effects. In eastern, central and western view, the estimation results of traditional panel models and spatial panel models all indicate that the effects and significant difference of the explanatory variables between the three regions are significantly different, indicating that major factors which affect our regional development of circulation industry also have regional differences. Likewise, significant factors in parameter estimation results are similar in spatial panel data models and traditional panel data models of the three regions, while spatial panel data models also reveal that the development of one area’s circulation industry does suffer direct space spillovers effect from the development of peripheral areas’ circulation industry, which is also the traditional panel data model cannot be found, once again confirms that the considerations of geo-spatial effects in the analysis of circulation industry development are correct and the estimation results of spatial panel data models are reasonable.Finally, according to the conclusions we submit following policy implications. The development of China’s circulation industry should co-ordinate the overall situation, establish the overall planning, and take efforts to construct coherent, well-structured framework and spatial pattern for development of circulation industry; we should highlight the strategic position of expanding consumption; put the circulation industry development programming to general urban development plan; strengthen the construction of center cities and small towns and strive to foster the circulation industry market players.Based on the research about the disparities of circulation industry development, this article not only enriches the theory and methods of study on regional difference of economic development, but also contribute to a correct understanding of the situation and gaps of regional development of China’s circulation industry, which play an important role in reference to the promotion of the development of regional circulation industry according to local conditions and have great practical significance to promote the regional circulation industry and even coordinate the regional economic development of China.