Forward Forecasting And Assessment On Regional Development Of Nuclear Power Investment In General Synergetic Structure Theory

This article was proceeding with the application practice research of economic activities’ paths in economics spatial theory, combining with the large scale of investment and long cycle of the nuclear power project, demanding on its strictly location selection and high technical safety requirement. We have studied the economic mathematics, spatial and regional economics, economic and load forecasting, evaluation methods, relevant academic references and the latest research results. While the government implemented the long-term nuclear power development plan and nuclear safety plan, this research was put forward and completed. In this article, we showed the method to classify the previous electric power industry prediction. In the network spatial economy basic theory system, which was based on each branch characteristics of the general synergetic structure? We were corresponding to the optimal forecasting method applied in prediction researches of this project. During the same period, we was studying the comprehensive assessment of risk management, social and economic benefits. This article is a practical reference of research methods and measures. In order to study the prior period feasibility analysis of nuclear power investment, economic location choices and promoting to the regional overall development.The conception of General constraint relation was given in this paper. After that, the process in equivalence class partition analysis was implemented. We setted up nine economic factors index system and the definition of regional and non-regional economy factors were given. The application research analysis of network spatial economy and general synergetic structure theory also were demonstrated in the paper. Based on the definition of general economic utility function extendedly, it was defined that the general nonlinear economy power control system, regional and non-regional economy power, economy growth momentum, and complex networks agglomeration economy center were changing the research. This research was the presentation and practice analysis of forward economic utilities and measures. On the above conclusions and corresponding to the national economic statistics classification existing, general constraint relation economic flows network space defining, and so the definition of GDP＄, CIF and population capacity ratio in economic flows network, it was proceeding that agglomeration economics scale development research on the (maximum) economics scale degree model, which was constructing in certain province. Meanwhile combining with the decision of regional economics location, it was demonstrated that the path locating algorithm of agglomeration economics comprehensive professional zone.In view of the inappropriation of existing single prediction method for all branches and positive or negative prediction effects, applying ANP decision method can put forward the optimal combination prediction methods in general synergetic structure. With the above theories and methods analysis, especially the economics scale degree model, it was preceding the prediction of regional economics and electric power scale development of nuclear power project investment in the province. As for the five industries in general synergetic structure, basing on the nine economic factors index system in the foundation of general constraint relation knowledge, with the BP neural network, we could carry on the forecasting analysis in five industries development for follow-up to support. With dynamic fuzzy logic system, it was extendedly implement the prediction research of forward economic utility measure, which was supported by the general constraint relation knowledge. Depending on the intelligent depth correlation searching method in general constraint relation knowledge foundation, it was the proceeding of causal correlation data mining analysis in economic flow network. With the support of the judgment of dynamic fuzzy hierarchy analysis for important impacts on each of nine economic factors index system, and the fuzzy ANP method carrying on the research analysis of six regional power system and five economics development models in the province, it was demonstrated in a phase of comprehensive economics rapid development. Applying the optimal combination forecasting methods in general synergetic structure, on its economic development present situation, it carried on the development scale forecasting research of economics and general power load.On the above research conclusion and analysis of its current development situation, the analysis of market environment, selection principles, risk problem and social response of nuclear power investment, these issues were combined with the particularity of nuclear power project and key technology security. It was comprehensively researched and analyzed to build the index systems of risk management, social benefit and economic benefit of the project. Consequently, applying with dynamic fuzzy AHP method, it was a respectively assessment of the risk management, social and economic benefits.