Study On Influence Of Beijing Traffic Polices Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid development of society, traffic congestion and environmental pollution caused by urban traffic have become a negative factor which can affect the development of some big cities, and which is faced by urban planners and policy makers. Based on this background, transportation policy was deeply researched in this article by using the method of system dynamics. First, the influence and function of investment policy of transportation, environmental policy, restriction policy, lottery policy, and traffic congestion pricing to urban transportation and environment has been deeply researched based on the analysis of the urban transportation system structure and the illustration of the relationship between urban transportation and traffic supply&transportation demand. Second, divided the interactive relationship of urban transportation system and transportation policy into five modules including society, economy, environment, traffic supply and transportation demand. And this article will take Beijing as an example to construct the system dynamics model of transportation policy influence. Thirdly, system boundaries as well as the feedback relationship between elements of the system were determined to establish causality graph and system flowchart, and to design structural equation and model parameter. The validity of the model was also verified by using specific example. Finally, the trend of Beijing transportation was predicted by using the system dynamic model. And the traffic operations on the condition of alternative transportation policies were compared through system dynamic simulation method. This article also gives some recommendations for the development of Beijing transportation in the light of the analysis on the simulation results.