Research On Objective Deviation Analysis And Impact Factors Of Regional Industry Low-Carbonization Development

The development of industrial civilization has not only created unprecedented productivity and huge wealth, but also caused a series of big problems which badly influenced the sustainability of our society, such as global warming, increasing depletion of energy and resources, environmental deterioration, etc.. Therefore, the promotion of conservative culture, resource-saving and environmental-friendly society, as well as the development of green, low-carbon and circular economy, undoubtedly becomes our common responsibility and urgent obligation. In particular, the transform of economic mode through low carbonization of industrial structure has been an essential way to achieve energy-saving and pollution-reducing, and then stimulate green economy for a country or an area.Industrial low-carbonization is long-term process and complex engineering. From the perspective of a region or an industry, several topics like evaluating and analyzing the development status of low carbonization, figuring out the existing problems and its impact factors, adjusting the industrial transition plans, and making incentive policies have been hot issues focused by academia and many relevant government departments.This paper focuses on the deviation analysis between status quo and policy target level of regional industry low-carbonization development. Based on the summary of relative theories, methodologies and the research actuality at home and abroad, combining with field survey and expert consulting, we first establish an evaluation index system of regional industry low-carbonization development. Then, we analyze the characteristics and data requirements of the objectives, finding that the ideal evaluation method should reflect the approximation degree of current status of industrial low-carbonization with respect to the future target level, as well as the inner coordination of industrial development, industrial structure adjustment and green economy. Traditional methods like Weighted Comprehensive Evaluation, Principle Component Analysis (PCA), Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation, however, could not satisfy above demands. Therefore, this paper introduces the concept of vector angle and distance vector (DV) measures, and a target deviation evaluating model based on vector space arithmetic is used to judge industrial low-carbonization level. We use position deviation to reflect the difference of development level, and take angel deviation to measure the difference of inner coordination. Next, this paper takes Changsha city as a case study. Choosing the industrial low-carbonization plan and relative statistical data of Changsha City, we evaluate angle deviations and position deviations between real development levels and the target ones from2005to2011, analyze the characteristics of the deviation changes, find out the major impact factors for the deviation changes, and then conclude primary problems faced by Changsha’s low-carbonization development at the moment. Finally, we provide several policy suggestions to stimulate the development of regional industry low-carbonization in Changsha City.