Dynamic Simulation Of Land Use Spatial Pattern Changes In Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations

Abstract:The simulation and analysis of regional land use change has become the most important contents of Land Use and Land Cover change (LUCC). And the rapid development of urban areas are the important area in regional land use change research field. As the "Duel-model Society" construction area in the whole country, the economy of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations has being developed rapidly and the urbanization and new industrialization is accelerating,which leads to the significant changes of land use/cover. Therefore, this paper chooses Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations as the study area and uses the improved ant colony intelligent optimization algorithm to classify remote sensing images in order to require the simulation data. By using CLUE-S model and setting four different situations, we did a multi-scale simulation of land use change, which provided a scientific reference for the decision making of land use planning and sustainable economic development for the study area.(1) Remote sensing image classification based on improved Ant Colony intelligent optimization algorithm (ACIOA)By using improved ACIOA to mine the classification rules of two periods images, we obtain21and37rules respectively and classify images. The overall accuracy are86.23%and85.34%respectively, which means that the improved ACIOA classification results have high reliability as the data required for the simulation.(2) Simulation-scale analysis of land use spatial pattern changeBased on multi-scales simulation, land use spatial pattern change and the goodness of fit are studied by the simulation result. Finally, We take the scale of200meter as the best simulation scale.(3) Research on the suitability of Land use probability distributions suitabilityThe regression results show that the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) values of construction land, cultivated land, forest, water and bare land are0.846、0.831、0.899、0.939、0.841after adding the space-related variables into study, which demonstrates that the suitability of Land use probability distributions suitability is higher.(4) Land use change simulation and analysis under different scenariosWe simulate the land use spatial pattern change of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations by using CLUE-S model and setting four scenarios which include natural growth scenario, land use planning scenario, farmland protection scenarios and ecological protection scenario. Then we analysis the Land use transfer characteristics of simulation results for four kinds of simulation scenario. The results show that the spatial pattern of land use change of land use planning scenario scheme is more reasonable.