The Economic Effect Of The Extending VAT Tax Base Reform Of Traffic Transport Industry

The structural tax reduction is the important direction of current China’s fiscaland taxation policy, one of them is the Extending VAT Tax Base Reform. Our countryformally identify the traffic transport industry as pilot industry to further solve theproblems of repeated taxation, improve taxation system and promote industrialtransformation in2012.Then, how the reform which brings the traffic transport industry into the VAT basewill affect the real tax burden? Meanwhile, from a dynamic equilibrium perspective,what economic effects will this reform produce to economy and economic behavior,and how great are the effects? Based on this foundation, this article first expounds theprocess of value added tax’s base, then analyzes the necessity of the reform andestimates the real tax burden’s change by input-output method, the results show thatthe real tax burden will decline by0.4%.After introduction of China’s dynamic computable general equilibrium model–Chinagem Model on the basis of carding the mechanism of the real tax burden’s changehow affects economy, this paper set an appropriate simulate scene and simulates acomprehensive and quantitative assessment of the dynamic effects of the reformnationwide from2012to2020, including macroeconomic effects, industrial structureeffects, energy conservation and emission reduction effects and tax incidence effects.The results show that: this reform will promote economic growth and improve theinvestment and consumption effectively, it can pull the degree of economic growth0.581%, the actual investment and consumption rose by1.306%and0.349%; make theprice level tends to improve; accelerate the industrial expansion, employment of thefirst, second and third industry increase about0.369%,0.539%and0.626%cumulatively, which will promote industry transformation and industrial upgrading;and make a rise of financial revenue by tax shifting effect; but it will hurt the energyand environment somewhat. Finally, the paper makes corresponding policyrecommendations according to the results．...