| In recent years, with the transformation of China’s economicstructure, the propulsion of urbanization, the continuous growth ofresidents’ disposable income, the optimization of consumption structure,the introduction of several residential real estate macro-control policies,as well as some other effects, commercial real estate as an important partof real estate has become a field which many real estate developmententerprises are competing to transform into. Since2010, many major realestate development enterprises have published their strategies forcommercial real estate development. And a large amount of funds havebeen poured into the commercial real estate market. Commercial realestate has become a new investment hots pot in the domestic real estatemarket. Commercial real estate investment is a highly integrated andhighly correlated economic process, with large amount of financial inputand long developing cycle. The whole investing process is a high yeld,yet high risk activity. Therefore, developing a systematic method toanalyze and evaluate the investment risk is extremely necessary and hassignificant theoretical and practical impact, especially when thecorresponding theory and policy are not yet mature as it is in currentsituation of China.On the basis of previous established domestic and foreign real estateinvestment risk theories, this study clarified the concepts of thecommercial real estate and commercial real estate investments, and characterized the risk factors of the commercial real estate investment inChina from the developer perspective. A set of risk evaluation indexeswas first selected through expert investigation approach, and thecorresponding evaluation system was constructed, taking into account therelative importance of each index. Specifically, regarding the multilevelcomplexity of the evaluation system and the difficulty of quantifying theevaluation indexes, after a comprehensive examination of the relativeadvantages and disadvantages of various evaluation methods, weconstructed a multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based onFuzzy Theory which combines both the analytic hierarchy process andfuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, taking Fuzhou Suningsquare project as a case study, we proved the feasibility of our AHP youmight want to clarify the meaning of this acronym comprehensiveevaluation model. Furthermore, we proposed corresponding practicalmeasures to prevent and control the commercial real estate investmentrisk. |
