Study On The Influence Factors Of House Price-Rental Ratio

House price-Rental ratio is significantly high in most cities in China in recent years. The argue about whether there is bubble in the real estate market or not is on debate without end. This paper puts emphasis on House price-Rental ratio, which is often used as a measurement index of real estate bubble; It is an effective supplement for the bubble study. From perspective of the housing sale market and the housing rental market, the author believes that speculative demand for houses and supply differences in public service between homeowners and tenants are important factors causing the deviation from the normal range, especially the speculative demand for houses.Basing on the Rent Theory and the Four-Quadrant Model, house price should be in reasonable proportion to rental. However, House price-Rental ratio in China is abnormally high. There are some important distinctions between the housing sale market and the housing rental market:different stages of development, different products and additional services, and different target customers.The paper studys the influence factors of House price-Rental ratio using468samples cities between2008and2012. In chapter3, the author analys the change trend of house price, rental and House price-rental ratio with descriptive statistical analysis. In chapter4, the author estimates "reasonable house price", basing on the price-rental ratio of international standard range’s upper limit "300" and the collection of rent data; selects "Reasonable house price" and "real house price" as explained variables; and verifies the existence of structural differences between housing sale market and housing rental market in China with the Chow Test. Chapter5establishes the system model, in which house price, rental and House price-rental ratio are explained as dependent variables.This paper comes up with four conclusions:First, there are realistic foundation to some extent contributing the high house price-rental ratio in China, but the degree of deviation in most cities is far more than a reasonable level. Second, the development of housing sale market and housing rental market in China is not harmonious, it is difficult for the two markets to play a complementary function; Third, speculative demand for houses has raised the price-rental ratio in China; The last but not the least, supply differences in public service between homeowners and tenants further exacerbate the bubble degree of housing market in China.