Study On The Monitoring And Warning Of Folk Finance Risk In China

Folk finance has over two thousand years of history in our country, which is developed based on personal credit. Folk finance now becomes an important supplement of formal finance, which plays a great role in raising funds, increasing the efficiency of capital, solving the financing difficulties problems of small and medium-sized enterprises, promoting the development of our country’s economy. However, in recent years, the crisis of regional private lending activities which happened frequently proves the folk finance is a "double-edged" sword, which can promote the economic development and also weaken the government’s macro-control efforts, has the latent finance risk cannot be ignored. Therefore, controlling the private financial risk is the foundation of making its function and overcome its drawbacks. Supervise and make the early warning of folk finance crisis, and establish a relatively complete system of early warning indicator system to monitor the folk finance risk, will help us prevent the regional private risk into crisis and has an important significance to promote China’s economic and financial health and stable its development.This thesis is consisted of six parts to expound the problems about the folk finance risk early warning. First, it expounds the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of folk finance risk. Second, on the base of comprehensive comparison of the field in the research status and results, it defines the meaning of folk finance and analysis the characteristics of folk finance crisis. Third, it analysis the source of folk finance risk and expound China’s private financial risk characteristics and formation mechanis. Fourth, combined with the private financial risk early warning indicator system the selection of principles, this thesis confirms the indicator system of private financial risk early warning. Through the method of factor analysis and KLR signal indicators, it tests the reality and rationality of the chosen indicators. And the conclusion is:the warning indicators system of folk financial risk we selected has a certain practical significance, and it can better explain the causes of our country’s financial risk and fit its trend. Fifth, through the private financial risk analysis and combined with our private financial actual situation, I propose the measures of controlling folk finance risk to consummate the folk finance risk regulatory laws and regulations. And improve the folk finance monitoring system which will make the folk finance change from the "gray zone" to "sunshine". Finally, summarizes the research conclusion of this thesis and points out the deficiency. Making outlook of the future research.