The Study Of Early-warning Financing Risk Model To Pharmaceutical Industry Listed Companies

In the fierce market competition, enterprises occur potential financial risk at any time, which not only brings the plight of the enterprise itself, but also causes losses to investors. Therefore, it is an urgent need for people to deepen understanding about the early-warning financial risk. In this paper, the theory of financial risk early-warning model has been discussed.We build an early-warning financial risk model based on listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry, which has practical significance on the prevention of financial risks for listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry.The paper uses qualitative and quantitative research method, theoretical and empirical analysis method to calculate and analyze the early-warning financial risk, based on the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry of China effectively. First, through diccuss the theory of the financial management, we preliminarily choose 17 indicators of early-warning financial risk, which can effectively reflect the extent of corporate financial risk from six areas like the profitability, solvency, asset operational capacity, growth, asset structure and cash flow. Secondly, the paper choose 20 ST firms and 188 non-ST companies in the pharmaceutical industry in 2008-2009 the as modeling samples, through SPSS software to extract common factors set on behalf of 78% primary indicators information. Thirdly, based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, we build T-1 and T-2 early-warning financial risk based on the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry. Among them, using statistical analysis, we build the corresponding indicators limits of different levels in this evaluation set, and establish the membership function, to determine single factor evaluation matrix for the early-warning financial risk models; using order relations analysis, to determine the weights set for the early-warning financial risk model. Fourth, through the Jinling Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.2008-2009 financial data empirically test, the T-1 and T-2 the early-warning financial risk model, proved that the model is effective.This paper argues that:based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the constructed T-1 and T-2, early-warning financial risk model to pharmaceutical industry listed companies is effective. The model is able to supply early-warning financial risk information for T-1 and T-2 listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry.