The Study Of The Early Warning System Of Real Estate Finance Risks Supported By Symptom Monitoring

As a capital intensive industry,the real estate industry can't work without the support of the finance,both to promote and develop mutually.But there are a variety of risks in real estate finance activities,once the risk exposed,which will cause losses to the financial institutions,real estate enterprises,and other real estate finance subject,then impact the healthy and stable of the real estate market and finance market.Therefore,it is necessary to disclose information and forecast risk for the real estate finance market,to find out the possible risks and propose the risk prevention measures,it's useful to regulate and control the real estate finance market activities.From the macro and micro perspectives,this paper studies the formation and transmission mechanism of real estate finance risk,and explores the main components of the real estate finance risk.On the basis of the above,it is explored that choosing the early warning index under the guidance of the theory of symptom monitoring,and combining with the early warning model to build the early warning system.Hope to build a real estate finance risk early warning system,to identify possible risks in the future by the system,and timely and effective to avoid risk exposure.Therefore,this paper firstly analyzes the formation and transformation of the macro risk and micro risk of the real estate finance by the real estate finance system and real estate finance activities,determines the main body of early warning,combing with the main principle and features of syndromic surveillance in the medicine field,then building the index system of early risk warning,including four part,having 10 index.by 3? method and BP neural network model,finally constructing the early risk waring of real estate finance in China;through sorting the data of 15 years of 31 provinces in China and using MATLAB programs to simulate,the real estate finance risk of 31 provinces in the next two years could be research.The results shows that the risk level of the overall of 31 provinces remained stable in 2016,formatting risk is low possibility,but the regional risks should be pay attention;the risk level of the overall of 31 provinces increased in 2017,especially regional real estate finance risks began to have centralized trend,which should be reasonable control.The potential risks of 31 provinces in the next two year is mainly reflected in the large ratio of real estate finance loans,the real estate price growth unbalanced,uneven regional real estate investment unequally,the growth of real estate tax revenue,the changes of real estate policy.Finally,some policy to prevent the risks from formatting be presented.