Research On Risk Prediction Of The Construction Enterprise Technological Innovation

Technological innovation brings vigor and vitality to national economic and social development, and promotes the progress and prosperity of human society. It can be said that technical innovation is the source of human wealth, but it is also the main way to improve the market competitiveness and promote the sustainable development of enterprises. So, in recent years, our government has stressed the importance to build a national innovation system, has taken science and technology innovation activities on the core position of the overall development, and encourages enterprises to carry out technological innovation activities. The proportion of the value the specific construction enterprise create of total GNP is increasing in recent years, which has become an important part of the national economy. Thus, the construction enterprise needs to vigorously carry out technological innovation activities. However, technological innovation activities have high risk, especially for construction companies which faced with the complexity of the natural environment of the site and many uncertain factors. Construction companies need to carry out building activities in underground or ground and in the space within a certain depth and height, so the risk of technological innovation is higher. The risk factors in Construction enterprises technological innovation activities are different from general enterprises, so we need to research, analyze and forecast the risk situation of the construction enterprise technology innovation in order to ensure its technological innovation activities can be carried out smoothly.The paper analyzes what influences the technological innovation risk of construction enterprise through the theory analysis, establishes the basic measurement index system of technological innovation; and optimizes the index system and establishes the concise and reasonable measurement index system through validity analysis, stability analysis, and reduction based on attribute importance of rough set. The effect weight of the risk factors of technological innovation is analyzed through combining the objective weight based on the rough set and the experts’ subjective weight. Extensional matter element model which can predict the risk rank of technological innovation is constructed on the effect weight and the measurement index system. And the basic research is made on warning and controlling the risk of technological innovation in the construction enterprise. In order to make the method explicit and utilitarian, there is a research of combining the theory and practice. For proving the method feasibility and practicability, examples are given in the process that the author construct risk index system of technological innovation and predict it. The paper provides a new idea in predicting risk for the construction manager. There is some theoretical value in applying several methods to comprehensively analysis of the risk of technological innovation.