Research Of Chinese Small And Medium Enterprises Financial Prediction Based On Z-Score Model

With the development of social economic and improvement of socialist market economy system, small and medium enterprises pay more attention to the national economy and become an important force in our society. Whilesmall and medium enterprises exist a lot of risk, and the key risk is financial risk. Especially in the depression background, the phenomenon that the overall strength is not strong and weak ability against economic risk is common in small and medium enterprises. Since the economic crisis, many enterprises went bankruptcy, and small and medium enterprises are the first to be affected. Increasingly rigorous financial problem became one of the important factor that restraints the growing of small and medium enterprises.This paper uses the basis theory information economy and statistical science on the base of risk management research and case studies in domestic and international to define the financial risk of the communications industry,summarized and analyzed the Altman’s Z-Score model by the sequence from samples design to the choose of statistical method. This paper chose327companies and72financial ratios that influence financial risk. The final financial ratios were selected by the Stepwise Regression Method in SPSS, which became basic financial ratios to establish the revised Z-Score model. After model checking, the accuracy up to more than90%, which reflect the model is effective. The last part explained the reason of financial distress according to the present situation, designing strategies interior and exterior aspects. The last chapter expounds the shortages of this paper as well as prospect.The research on financial distresses widely in domestic and international, and the main method is to forecast the possibility through financial discriminate model with a view to financial prediction as well as financial prediction model and the choose of financial ratios. The innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly, financial data based on the listed small and medium board enterprises since the economic risk in2008.The financial data from2008to2012that reflected the financial state effectively. Secondly, former researchers focused on debt paying ability, profitability ability and cash flow ratios. Besides these ratios, this paper adds enterprise quality, development ability and capital structure ratios. That because stakeholders becoming more pay attention to the long-term development and consciousness that governor took. Thirdly, listed small and medium board enterprises established so late that researcher involved a litter.