| During transitional period of China’s agriculture modernization, ecological environmental problem is becoming increasingly accurate, and sustainable development of ecological agriculture becomes a must. It is of great practical significance to study on the current development situation and future trend of ecological agriculture by taking the county as the study unit. Taking Jiangyou as an example, this paper will analyze ecological agriculture’s current development situation, build a comprehensive evaluation system, and forecast the sustainable development level based on evaluation result by the methods of Delphi Method, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Coefficient of Variation, Comprehensive Exponential Evaluation, Grey System Forecast as well as Geographic Information System. In the end of this paper, it explores the means and models to develop ecological agriculture, and works out factual development plan. The main research is as follows:(1) By analyzing current development situation, this paper finds out Jiangyou’s advantages of developing ecological agriculture:strong policy support, practical productive forces transformed by observant achievements of post-disaster reconstruction, the strong capability of industry-repaying-agriculture as well as outstanding opening-up development. Besides, the disadvantages include unsuitable development mechanism, inadequate industrial system, poor conditions of material conditions, weak ability of individual development and imperfect service system.(2) By Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process method, this paper builds a comprehensive Exponential Evaluation system to estimate the development level of Jiangyou’s ecological agriculture. This system covers three layers:ecological system, economical system and social system, with27indicators.(3) By Coefficient of Variation and multi-linear method of weighting function, this paper evaluates comprehensive development level of Jiangyou’s ecological agriculture from2001to2010. The rate grows from0.2026in2001to0.7764in2010, except the negative growth in2008, which shows ecological agriculture achieves successful development level. The evaluation result indicates:comprehensive development level of Jiangyou’s ecological agriculture is on the rise, but incoordinate factors still exist. As a result, ecological agriculture’s internal structure needs to further optimized in order to contain a coordinated development of environment, economy and society.(4) By Matlab tool and Grey System Forecast, this paper forecasts the sustainability development of Jiangyou’s ecological agriculture from2012to2020. The predicted value shows the development level in2012will be2.5times higher than that of2012. Economic system is of fast growth rate, with average annual growth rate of38%, and the level in2020will be3.42times higher than present. As a result, to develop ecological agriculture and protect the environment will guarantee a profitable economical return and a sustainable development.(5) Five different ecological agriculture areas are divided by using Geographic Information System:North Mountain Ecological Reserve; West Mountain and Deep Valley’s tourism HAC; Northeast Hills Ecological Reserve Characterized by Soil and Water Conservation; Midland Shallow Hill and Flatland Ecological Reserve and South Hills Comprehensive Ecological Reserve. Suitable development models are designed in accordance with area development.(6) From the aspects of policy, economy and technology, this paper works out nine suggestions to promote Jiangyou’s ecological agriculture development comprehensively: quicken agricultural labor force transfer, strengthen post-disaster ecological restoration and agricultural infrastructure reconstruction, speed up the development of Mianyang-Jiangyou industrial belt, put forward ecological agriculture standardized production, make full use of Mianyang’s advantages-Science&Technology City and enhance agricultural information service. |
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