The Effect Of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation On Foreign Trade

The development of foreign trade could bring dynamic benefits for a country in the fields ofoptimizing resource allocation, realizing scales of economy, improving labor productivity andupgrading industrial structure and so on. Agriculture which is as the basic industry of nationaleconomy will provide key supportive role for china to transform from a large trading country to apowerful trading country in the future. In recent years, The strong fluctuation of AgriculturalProduct price brings heavy pressure to the stable development of Chinese foreign trade, Butthrough which transmission mechanism to transmit and causing how much the loss and the gainshave became the focus of the society. This thesis, based on such background, studies the effect ofAgricultural product price fluctuation on foreign trade, and hopes to Provide theoretical support forthe development of Chinese foreign trade in the perspective of Agricultural product pricefluctuation.Firstly,This thesis takes Chinese foreign trade as core, uses agricultural product price as cut-inpoint, reviews and absorbs the existing literature results, determines the logical starting point ofresearch, and defines related concepts; secondly, it combines empirical analysis with normativeanalysis, constructs the theoretical framework for Chinese agricultural product price fluctuationand foreign trade, reveals the influential factors on their relations, and establishes import、exporteconometric model respectively on this basis. In addition, the thesis conducts empirical analysis onChinese agricultural product price and import、export trade from1980to2011. Finally, it putsforward policy suggestions based on the cause of analysis of empirical results. The main results ofthis thesis are as follows:Firstly, the fluctuation of Chinese agricultural product price makes influence on import&export trade mainly by means of agricultural product foreign trade、cost mechanism of foreigntrade and demand mechanism of foreign trade.Secondly, According to H-P filtering method to divide the periodic of Chinese agriculturalproduct price fluctuation from1978to2011, it can be divided into six complete cycle. Thirdly, The relationship between agricultural product price and import、export trade can bedivided into five stages or three stages respectively from1980to2010, furthermore, there existsdifferent forms between agricultural product price and import、export trade in different stages.Fourth, There exists long-term relationship between Chinese agricultural product price andimport、export trade, furthermore, we can get the results that: the rising of agricultural productprice can cause the increase of import and the decrease of export, and vice verse.Finally, There was unilateral Granger causality running from Chinese agricultural productprice to import and export trade, and the influence from agricultural product price fluctuation toimport trade is more than export trade.