The Research On The Effect Of The Development Of Commerce Circulation To The Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation

Keeping the stability of agricultural products price has always been an important goal of the party and the government’s macro-control.In recent years,the agricultural products price goes up and down sharply because of the more circulation links and poor circulation channels.So this paper takes the perspective of commerce circulation and studys the impact of commerce circulation investment on agricultural price fluctuations from the theoretical and empirical level.The article firstly expounds the theory of commerce circulation,including the theory of supply chain management and the bullwhip effect theory.Then uses the theory of supply-demand theory,cobweb model and farmer production theory to explain the price fluctuation of agricultural products.On this basis,the paper respectively analyses the effects of commerce circulation investment on the production cost,circulation cost and transaction cost of agricultural products to expound the mechanism of the influence on the price fluctuation of agricultural products form the persepective of price sturcture and the effects on the relationship between supply and demand of agricultural products to expound the mechanism of the influence on the price fluctuation of agricultural products form the persepective of supply-demond.As the theoretical analysis can only show that the commerce circulation investment will affect the price fluctuation of agricultural products,it does not solve the impact degree of the problem.So this paper uses vector error correction model,impulse response function and variance decomposition method to analyse the impact of the development of commerce circulation on the price fluctuation of agricultural products quantitatively.The results shows that the development of commerce circulation will bring different effects on the price fluctuation of agricultural products in China.But generally speaking,the impact of the food retail price is greater.That is to say,the influence of commerce circulation on the fluctuation of retail price of agricultural products is more obvious.In the end,the article proposes to make the agricultural products price fluctuation stable from the perspective of commerce circulation by improving the circulation system of agricultural products trade,encouraging agricultural wholesale and retail innovation,cultivating rural modern circulation subjects,strengthen the construction of agricultural products trade circulation laws and trading more circulation talents.