Sequential Auctions Under The Price Fluctuation Of The Study

With the development of auction practice and auction theory, the Europe and America market which have more developed productive forces, discovered that the auction trading mode suit the commodity characteristics of fresh agricultural products at first, especially for large sequential auction of fresh agricultural products. Through introduction of the auction mechanism, the problems that lower efficiency of agricultural products circulation and higher transaction costs can be solved; it's conducive to promoting the industrialization of agriculture. In 2007, the Kunming International Flower Auction Centre (KIFA) have proceed auction system reforming and process reengineering, after that,it become not only the largest but also the most successful auction market of fresh agricultural products gradually. However, compare with the foreign fresh agricultural products auction markets, there is a high level of volatility of its transaction price between multi-days and single-day auction.In the daily transactions of auction market, the price volatility not only have a great impact on the interests of auction participants, flower suppliers, auction market itself, but also would reduce the success rate of transactions.And then, these effects will affect the price volatility in return, this additive effect would seriously undermine the interests of all parties, so that the daily operation of the auction market tends to disorder. This paper combines the theory and practice of price fluctuation with fresh agricultural products under the sequential auction, and uses KIFA as an example for empirical research. By analyzing millions of transaction data in KIFA between two years, this paper determine that the B level (net) Corolla of 80cm as the mainly research object; the data period is May 2009; the price trends is downward.After establishing the object, the period and the price trends of the research, this paper uses the ARIMA time series self-regression method analyze daily trading price formation of KIFA, in order to determine the self-associate of price sequence in single trading day. On this basis, establish five assumptions of price volatility factor, combine with these assumptions construct corresponding variables, and use the method of multiple linear regression for analyze these variables. At last, we point out that the last price has a positive impact on the transaction price; auction duration has negative effect on the transaction price; buyer type (scale) and sellers type (scale) have a positive impact on the transaction price; remaining quantity of products during the auction have a negative impact on the transaction price.Through make a empirical research on KIFA base the theoretic analysis, this paper find that the guarantee of low participate cost, the encourage of suitable bider for present the bid, the establishing of applicable reserve and start price, the ensureing of justice auction process which explained by the tranditional theory are only a small part of the factors which urge the success auction and the stable operation of acution market. Further more, the most important is that base on the above to establish a perfect information disclosure mechanism, expand the scale of auction market for impoving trading efficiency, enhance and organize propaganda for guide the trading trends, optimize the trading mechanism for enhancing the operational level.