Real Estate Price Risk Analysis In Xiamen

For the last few years, the real estate in Xiamen continued to heat up, and thehousing price increased rapidly. This article studies the real estate in Xiamen with thereal estate bubble theory. Firstly, analyzes the real estate development statuspreliminary based on Xiamen real estate development history and the marketoperation statistics. Secondly, calculates the deviation between Xiamen real estateprice and the basic value using five indexes as housing price growth rate/GDP growthrate，real estate investment/total fixed assets investment，growth rate of real estateloans, vacancy rate and price earnings ratio. Thirdly, constructs a comprehensiveevaluation of the real estate bubble indicators using the analytic hierarchy processwith these five indexes, and do empirical research on the real estate market bubblesituation accordingly in Xiamen from2002to2012. Forthly, analyzes the status ofreal estate market supply and demand, reveals the real estate supply and demandstructure contradictions in Xiamen, analyzes the cause of the real estate price risingand bubbling.The above analysis and appraisal conclude that: the product structure of real estatein Xiamen was not in balance in the recent years, the housing price is too high andbubble exists，the market contains some hidden risks. In the case of oversupply,monopoly and speculation caused the rising of housing price primarily. Currentlymost of the analysis of the real estate market in Xiamen are qualitative, this articleattempts to measure the real estate bubble index in Xiamen quantitatively, reveal therisk of real estate bubble accordingly. Given the problems exist in the real estatemarket of Xiamen, suggest to build early warning mechanism to prevent the bubble,and provide some references for the healthy development of the real estate market,especially for the residential market.