Research On Prediction Of Housing Demand In Harbin City

Real estate is the important industries concerning people’s livelihood, the healthyand orderly development of it is the top priority of the government’s economic work.The real estate market of Harbin city also has shown a good posture with the rapiddevelopment of economy in recent years. Real estate investment continues to grow,housing construction area, completed area, sales area is also increasing year by year,and the per capita using area gradually reached a well-off level by followed nationalpolicy. Research the demand of housing market, to grasp the overall trend of it, toprovide theory and data for the government to formulate corresponding policies.From two factors which are per capita using area and population, to research thehousing demand questions by using the model of M-W. Analyzing the housing situationin Harbin, referring to the relevant literature on the influence factors of the per capitausing area, and using statistical software SPSS, quantitatively to reach the fourinfluential factors of the per capita using area as the annual per capita income, per capitaliving consumption expenditure, average house prices, housing construction area. Topredict the four influencing factors values in twelve years from2000to2011by greyGM (1,1) prediction, and brought those into multivariate linear regression equations ofper capita using space to show return values. Multiple regression prediction values ofper capita using space and per capita using space of grey GM (1,1) predicted values arefitting with real values from2000to2011to obtain the finally living space per capita.To estimate the changes of the total population from2013to2018by using grey GM(1,1) prediction. Then Put per capita using area and population into the M-W model ofhousing demand, to predict housing demand in five years from2013to2017. Analysisthe three parts of housing demand, we can see that, the type of existing population whoneed to improve the future housing demand is the largest proportion of housing demandis accounted for about70%. Secondly depreciation of the existing housing in a futureperiod also has a certain influence on housing demand to a certain extent. Propose fivepolicy recommendations above the results: control the total real estate investment anddevelopment; strengthen the government macroeconomic regulation of the housingsystem, not only emphasize the supply but from the perspective of demand; strengthen policy guidance; improve circulation channels of information about the housing market;improve the housing construction supervision system and the peripheral supportingfacilities, in order to make more vacant houses into the housing market.