Research On Demand Forecast Of Residential Market In Xi'an

As the most important part of the real estate industry, housing industry development has a huge impact on the other industries throughout the country or the region because housing industry has a strong stimulating effect and a high correlation. Changes in housing demand will always guide the development of the housing market. Housing market demand research can grasp the true state of the housing market operation, is not only an important basis for the development of government macro-control policies, but also an important reference for developers, investors and consumers in residential investment and consumption decisions. With the rapid development of economy, Importance of the housing industry in the socio-economic development is increasing. Proper solution of the housing demand plays a very crucial role for long-term stability of the whole society.This paper takes the demand of housing market in Xi’an as the research object. Firstly, it analyzes the current development and the existing problems of Xi’an housing market; Secondly, the influence factors on the housing market demand are summarized, which is based on reading the relevant literature in this field, and then, qualitatively analyze the factors which affecting the residential market demand in Xi’an from the economic and non economic. What should be emphasized is, the Influence of urbanization on the housing demand is analyzed separately in this section. It is because actively and steadily push forward the urbanization construction become China’s main strategic objectives after the18th CPC National Congress. Under the impetus of the policy, the rapid development of the urbanization process will drive the urban housing demand. Urbanization will probably be a key factor in affecting the housing demand in the near future. Considering the the quantifiable of the influence factors, this paper collects data of11influencing factors from2004to2012, using grey relational analysis method to make a relevance ranking of all the quantitative index. The results shows that, nearly ten years, most important factors of affecting the demand for the housing market in Xi’an are GDP, per capita disposable income of urban residents, the average price of residential and residential development investment while the per capita living space, the completion of the residential area of influence, number of households, the number of urban population, urbanization rate, more than five years mortgage interest rates on housing demand is relatively small; Thirdly, the grey GM (1,1) model and multiple linear regression models were used Respectively to forecast sales of residential area in Xi’an from2013to2017. The two prediction results are close after comparison. If the macro policy not changed greatly in the next five years, residential market demand of Xi’an will continue to increase in the short term, and the increased amount will most likely between two results. At the end of day, According to the above research conclusion, put forward the policy suggestion to the development of Xi’an residential market. The government should continue to control the increase of the effective supply, support for building more small-sized apartment housing and affordable housing to meet the housing needs of low-income residents; To encourage and guide the consumer to establish a scientific concept of housing, do the rational consumption and the most suitable housing choice; And establishing a sound housing market monitoring and early warning mechanism, accurately grasp the pulse of the market, enhance their ability to respond to market changes.The empirical analysis method and the prediction model used in Xi’an housing market demand has general applicability that can be applied to housing demand market research in other cities, not limited to the analysis and prediction of Xi’an housing demand. The prediction process without considering the impact of policy changes while the real estate industry is in particular relevant to the industrial policy. Future policy changes will reduce the accuracy of predicted results in different extent. This article only qualitatively analyze the significant acceleration in Xi’an urbanization process which can be clearly foreseen will bring a large number of housing demand in future. These new demand including, first time home buyers demand produced by the influx of new urban population of the city, passive self-living demand be brought from the reconstruction in the process of urbanization by the residents who have their own housing before and the housing demand of improvement from residents while income increase.