Load Forecasting Analysis For The Typical Developed Countries And The Typical Developing Countries

Nowadays electric power plays a key role in economic growth and society development. The electric power supply is a necessary factor for economic growth. Therefore, electric power is one of the most important things for our economic growth. However, the asynchronies between electric power construction and economic growth blocks economic growth. The load forecasting becomes the focus of the government and the society in order to keep the steady and rapid pace of the economic growth. The accurate load forecast is helpful to make the planning of power system accurately. What is more, the accurate load forecast will help people grasp the development direction of electric power market.By Stationary test, Granger causality test and linear regression method, we analyze the relationship between electricity consumption and GDP, population and the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP for each of the six countries (USA, UK, Japan, India, Brazil and China).Firstly, the six countries’ GDP, population, the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP and electricity consumption are examined by Stationary test and the results show that they are stable. Secondly, the six countries’ GDP, population, the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP and electricity consumption are tested by Granger causality test but the causality relationships are different among these six countries. Thirdly, based on each country’s level of economic development, these developed countries’the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP and electricity consumption (such as USA,UK and Japan) are analyzed by partial least-squares regression. At the same time, the developing countries’ GDP, population and electricity consumption (such as China, India, Brazil) are analyzed by partial least-squares regression. Therefore, the general rules of the developed and developing countries regression model are concluded. At last, China’s electricity consumption is forecasted.All in all, according to quantitative analysis of population, GDP, industrial structure, and electricity consumption, not only load can be forecasted, but also the impact of the power industry to the national economy and industrial structure can be forecasted.