The Research On The Deviation Of Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth In Hefei City

Nowadays,the development of electrification in our country has played an important role in the production activities of all sectors of the national economy,the same as the daily life of residents,and the electricity consumption are closely related to the economic growth.Hefei City,as the capital of Anhui Province,in the crucial period of transformation,upgrading and growth,will advance forward the goal of construction of regional mega city.Therefore,the study of the specific relationship of Hefei electric power consumption and economic growth will have important practical significance.This paper firstly analyzes the characteristics of the status quo of Hefei electric power consumption and economic growth,measures the economic growth with the standard of Hefei GDP,describes the consumption of the whole society with the Hefei electric power consumption,and study the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth with industrial consumption as the auxiliary index.This paper describes the economic and industrial structure of Hefei since 2000,the changes and characteristics of total electricity consumption and electricity consumption since 2005.Further,combined with the changes of electricity consumption elasticity coefficient,compared to the growth rate of GDP and the rate of growth in consumption,the paper points out that the two are in general enjoys the same cycle,but the consumption growth rate will fluctuate around the GDP growth rate with larger short-term divergence,and even fluctuates reversely.The changes of the industrial structure in different stage of economic development cannot fully explain the fluctuation of electricity consumption elasticity coefficient.The analysis shows that the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth needs to be further studied and discussed.Secondly,the paper uses the empirical research to study the deviation of Hefei electric power consumption and economic growth from total electricity consumption growth rate and GDP growth rate,combined with the power consumption coefficient of elasticity.Based on the analysis of the definition of the decomposition rate of growth in consumption,the paper points out that the GDP growth rate and per unit output value of electricity consumption growth rate determines the size of the growth rate of electricity consumption per unit of output;discusses the deviation effect mechanism,pointed out that the electricity consumption per unit of output by the change of industrial structure effect and industry segments per unit of output electricity change effect(electric energy intensity effect,reflecting the power utilization efficiency)common effect.Using the data from 2005 to 2015 and from 2015 to 2009,the cointegration test was carried out.The results show that only the change of industrial structure as the explanatory variable,cannot fully explain the power consumption on economic growth deviation,in industry segments per unit of output power consumption as explanatory variables,the fitting degree of the model is improved,and verifies the effect of change of power consumption intensity also significantly deviate from the growth rate of electricity consumption.Finally,this paper discusses the influence of the quantitative effect of industrial structure and energy consumption intensity effect on Hefei power consumption deviation phenomenon of the economic growth.On the basis of the above discussion,the Kaya identities will be decomposed into Hefei city electricity output effect,intensity effect and stucture effect,using a quantitative method of logarithmic mean Divisia index Ang B.W.proposed no residual decomposition of Hefei industrial power,three industrial electricity and 32 industrial electricity industry segments.Pointed out that the city of Hefei from 2008 to 2015,the industrial output effect is the main factor of the growth in electricity consumption,the absolute amount of the first and the second industry strength effect are negative,the first and the second industrial electricity consumption per unit of output intensity changes for the decline in electricity consumption has a positive effect,the absoltute amount of the third industry structure effect is negative,i.e.the third industrial structure changes to the unit value of the decline in electricity consumption has a positive effect.The first and the second industry shows that reducing the power consumption strength,to the electric power efficiency rise,low power consumption per unit of output;the third industries accounted for the increase,the optimization of the industrial structure is also conducive to reduce electricity consumption per unit output value.Specifically,Hefei city to raw chemical materials and chemical products manufacturing,non-metallic mineral products industry,electricity and heat production and supply industry as the representative of the high energy consuming industries,as well as the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing,general and special equipment manufacturing industry,computer and electronic equipment manufacturing and other industries and changes the change of power consumption intensity per unit of output power changes played a leading role.Therefore,Hefei city power structure to a certain extent reflects the existence of the current industrial structure,many colleges and universities should make full use of existing educational resources advantage,to increase investment in technology,the industial sector is the focus of future power planning and implementation of energy-saving emission reduction work,take a new road to industrialization;continue to deepen the optimization the industrial structure of the continuous growth of strategic emerging industries,accelerate the development of modern service industry,and strive to achieve the development of scientific,harmonious and green.