Simulation Research On Energy Price Policy Analysis To Promote Energy Reasonable Consumption In Beijing

Due to the factors such as economic, historical and natural constraints, Beijing’s urban environment and energy structure are still having problems:low energy efficiency, the coal firing shares large proportion in structure of energy consumption. This has caused serious environmental pollution, and in recent years, energy demand has been display a rapidly increasing trend. Take both in-depth analysis to the internal relationship of energy consumption, economic growth and environmental pollution, and in-depth study of energy price policy mechanism are beneficial for government to make scientific decision on energy price regulation policy. In order to have a sustainable development for Beijing city, a practical way is to make market motivation to energy structure for a reasonable adjustment, led industry structure optimization and upgrade, inspire enterprise competitiveness and innovation, strengthen technology upgrade and device reconstruction of, introduce concept of low carbon energy consumption to people.The topic is developing around this issue. Model analysis about guiding reasonable energy consumption is conducted. Also a few models have been built based on model analysis. Firstly built power pricing policy decision model, secondly built logical analysis model of guiding rational consumption policy simulation. Thirdly topic built quantitative analysis models regarding to both relationship between energy consumption and economical development, relationship between energy consumption and pollutant emissions. Lastly, based on input-output analysis method, topic studies the relationship between differential electricity price policy and economic development and built the model of differential electricity price policy decision. Study on the relationship between energy consumption and economic development, the topic is intended for significance and characteristics of energy consumption intensity and building the prediction models. Through analysis of decomposition methods, the energy consumption intensity increment analysis for efficiency and structure, and taking into account the international and domestic economic environment factors, to forecast the efficiency increment. In turn, it combined with energy consumption intensity of the base period to get the energy consumption intensity of the forecast period. Verify through an empirical analysis on the effect of prediction, prediction method of forecasting accuracy better than the modified residual error gray prediction model. On the relationship between differential electricity price policy and economic development in the process, the topic construct a model of the effect about differential electricity price policy for the sector of social production of the product price, quantity of consumption and GDP and the price level, based on the target of differential electricity price to construct the objective function and constraints model of electricity price policy.