The Analysis Of China’s Urban Residents’Consumption Structure Change In Transition Economies

Since the reform and opening-up, China has entered a period of economic restructuring. China’s national economy developed rapidly during this period. The GDP maintained two-digital growth for a long time. However, the pace of upgrading of the consumption structure has significantly decreased when GDP still maintained a high growth. And the upgrading of consumption structure of urban residents in China has entered a period of stagnation. This paper will use the consumption structure data from1981to2010to analysis the development of China’s urban residents’consumption structure from time and geographical perspectives.First, this paper segments30years of economic transition with clustering method using China’s urban residents’consumption structure data. And analyzes the various stages of the development of China’s urban residents’consumption structure characteristics and verify that the upgrading of the consumption structure at this stage of stagnation. Then use the inter-provincial data of urban residents’consumption structure to analysis influencing factors from geographical perspectives. The analysis process is carried out in two steps; First step is to use panel data model identification test methods to classify the31provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities from the geographical perspective. The second step is to establish panel data model for each group with buffer stock model, and analysis influence factors of consumption structure upgrading from two angles of the crowding out effect and uncertainty.In this paper, the following conclusions:From1981to2010, China’s urban residents’consumption structure upgrade process can be divided into four stages. The first stage from1981to1984is compensatory growth period; the second stage from1985to1991is durable the appliance consumption growth period under inflationary pressures; the third stage from1992to1999is Consumption structure rapid escalation period caused by rapid growth in income; the fourth stage from2000to2010is upgrading of consumption structure stagnation period.31provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities can be divided into four groups based on consumption structures in fourth stage. The first group contains Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Beijing. The consumption structure of this group is sensitive to income and insensitive to uncertainty. The second group contains Jilin, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Ningxia and Hebei. In this group the basic living consumer prices is uncertainty sensitive and development and enjoyment consumer is uncertainty sensitive. The third group contains Tibet, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hunan, Jiangsu and Tianjin. The consumption structure of this group is insensitive to uncertainty of income. The fourth group contains Hainan, Guangxi and Fujian. The consumption structure of this group has small crowding out effect and development and enjoyment consumer is sensitive to uncertainty of CPI.