Econometric Analysis On Consumption Trend Of Rural Residents In China

In the econometric analysis of economic problems,consumption is an important part,and China is a country with a large number of rural residents,so it is particularly important to study the consumption of rural residents.This paper analyzes the consumption trend through the data of rural residents' income and consumption for many years,including per capita net income,per capita disposable income,per capita consumption expenditure,seven categories of per capita consumption expenditure and financial budget expenditure data.Firstly,this paper analyzes the growth trend of income and consumption through the growth rate data of consumption and income.The Granger causality test of per capita income growth rate,per capita consumption expenditure growth rate,per capita seven categories of consumption growth rate and income and consumption is analyzed.Chapter 2analyzes the consumption trend of rural residents over the years by constructing ARMA model,and tests the ARCH effect on the residual error of the estimated results of ARMA model,analyzes the consumption fluctuation over the years through the existence of the ARCH effect,and then studies and analyzes the relationship between income and consumption.Secondly,the co-integration relationship test is carried out on the panel data of consumption and income,and an error correction model is established to simultaneously analyze the consumption problems of rural residents in China from time and region,including 31 provinces(cities)in China.Throughout most of the econometric theory,most economic class variables are not smooth,smooth panel data is not more likely,if USES the non-stationary variables to study the analysis of practical problems,the conclusion in the very great degree is not available,so the third chapter on the panel data stationarity test and cointegration relationship between the variables.The error correction model in chapter 3illustrates that the per capita consumption expenditure of the response variable is affected by the recent changes of the explanatory variable per capita income and financial budget expenditure,and the error correction term also has an impact on the per capita consumption,that is,it is affected by the long time equilibrium relationship between variables far away from the short time changes.Finally,ordered dependent model of income and consumption is established,and thennual data analysis and quarterly data analysis are carried out.The per capita consumption data of rural residents in China is divided into levels and the relationship between consumption levels and per capita income is analyzed.The data of per capita income and per capita consumption are the data of many years and quarters in China's provinces and cities.