The Study Of Modeling And Evaluating Of Structural Risk Of City Investment Company

With the financial crisis aftershocks and the legacy effect of governmentstimulus policy gradually appearing, risk of city investment company which has deeprelationship with government becomes increasingly salient. And this kind of risk ismainly composed of risk from investment and financing behavior. How to manage thestructural risk effectively, establish a risk-monitoring and sharing system, that couldguide company development, make sense to National and regional economy. Basedon this, this article carried out the research from the following aspects.(1) From domestic and foreign scholars, the paper systematically analyze thetheory basis of infrastructures investment and financing, and risk management.Firstly, we study the asset properties, driving factors, development history of cityinvestment company. And then, we do deeply research on investment risk andfinancing risk in the view of investors.(2) We analyze the influence factors and mechanism of formation of structuralrisk. The influence factors mainly include macro and micro factors. The macro factorsare composed of national policy and legislative factors, regional economic factors,Local credit factors. The micro factors cover asset quality, solvency, profitability.Base on the analysis of factors, we make the conclusion that the basis of structuralrisk is the unbalance between the local government income and its expenditure.Objective condition is high risk of quasi business projects and non-business project.The subjective reason is the company’s low risk management ability. Finally,according to the risk transfer path, we summarizes the risk conduction mechanism(3) We construct risk evaluation index system, and use RBF neural network tocalculate the health degree of whole company. Because of the fat-tail phenomenon ofrisk, we can not only make overall health degree, but also make tail analysis. So wechoose Credit Metrics model to evaluate the tail risk of company by making exampleanalysis in which we calculate the VaR and compare with similar companies.