| Since 2015,all kinds of incidents make the domestic bonds market default raging like a storm,as an important part of the bond market,the city construction investment bonds in recent years also is controversial.The financing instruments was spawned by a series of policies,made the city construction investment bonds has obvious characteristics,such as the reform of the tax system,infrastructure and promote the economic policy,the old "budget law",the "guarantee law",it is a special bond between corporate bonds and municipal bonds.The new budget law and the introduction of the country issued No.43 in 2014,requiring the specification of local government debt financing mechanism,stripping financing platform financing functions.For a time,the city construction investment bonds became the focus of public concern.In addition,with the acceleration of the reform of the supply side,put forward the production went to the inventory requirements of the central authorities,the city voted enterprises industry overcapacity business uncertainty is more and more outstanding,the cash flow is tightened,the default risk of the city construction investment bonds will continue to increase and release pressure outward more and more.Under the background of this reform,this paper studies the credit risk of China’s city investment debt,aiming at protecting the interests of investors and putting forward reasonable suggestions for regulating the development of the city bond market.First,the article carried on the city investment debt theory level analysis,elaborated the city investment debt development and the future tendency,summarized the city to throw the debt to still have the big development space.On this basis,the article reveals the connotation of the city voted bonds and sources of credit risk by the interaction of financing body,particularity of bond and the actual control of the local government,these factors lead to the credit risk measurement full of difficulties.The third part of this article compares the existing mature credit risk measurement models and the two kinds of model JLT model and Credit Metrics model was determined use for this study.At the same time,according to the issue from 2012 to 2015 the city construction investment bonds,calculated Chinese 2012 to 2015 the city construction investment bonds credit rating transition matrix,based on comparing the matrix stability and rationality,will determine the Moodie?s nearly thirty years of municipal debt transfer matrix of America as the empirical tool of this study.Secondly,the first part of the empirical research using the JLT model to measure the strength of risk sample bonds,no specific risk and risk under the two conditions of the city voted bonds pricing,to measure the probability of default of the city construction investment bonds,namely the size of credit risk and credit rating inversely proportional to the time limit.On this basis,the second part uses empirical Credit Metrics model to estimate the maximum loss of one year after the city voted bonds get default,calculate the confidence level of 95% VaR,further confirmed the credit risk.Finally,according to the actual situation of China city investment bonds and the result of analysis,the relevant suggestions for the construction of prevention system of Chinese city to vote bonds credit risk is put forward in several dimensions: the local government financing platform,the third party intermediary,investors. |
