Research On Green House Market Maturity Based On System Dynamics

With the exacerbating of the environmental degradation and the strengtheningof public awareness of energy saving and emission reduction, our governmentfocuses more and inputs more into Green Houses market. In this case, it seems moreimportant to learn the development stage of Green Houses market and judge thedevelopment trend of Green Houses market. This paper conducts the simulationanalysis and maturity analysis of the Green Houses market to achieve the evaluationof the Green Houses market development and forecast the development trend ofGreen Houses market.This article is based on theory of system dynamics and takes Green Housesmarket as an existing system with the internal structure and external influence. Thispaper first analyzes the dynamic relationship of internal factors in the Green Housesmarket and then establishes a system dynamics model to describe the Green Housesmarket. This article makes clear of the internal effect and interaction of demandsubsystems, development subsystems, government action subsystems in thedynamic model. After applying relevant data of Nanjing into the model andcompleting the dynamic simulation of the Green Houses market, this paper tests theaccuracy of the model. And then it builds a maturity assessment model based on thetheory of maturity and realizes the evaluation of the Green Houses marketdevelopment of any point. Finally, it combines the simulation results and maturityevaluation to achieve a dynamic evaluation and prediction of the Green Housesmarket development.This research breaks the traditional thought of statically evaluating of GreenHouses, introduces a new modeling approach of system dynamics to study theGreen Houses market. This study realizes the simulation for Green Houses marketand innovatively changes maturity from static measurement to dynamic forecast.The simulation predicts the market trend of Green Houses and the approximatetime of different stages during its development, which is helpful for a betterunderstanding of Green Houses market, and can serve as references for governmentto make policy, real estate enterprises to make development strategies.