| In recent years, the network technology has been well developed. A variety of network application platforms has come into our view. It brings great convenience in our work, study and life. For example, micro-blog, blog, QQ space, online communities and so on. These network application platforms provide a new way for information sharing and dissemination. They accelerate the speed of information dissemination, shorten the distance between people. In these network application platforms, everyone can be a publisher and forwarder. It revolutionizes the traditional news media modes. The new mode of information dissemination and communication is a double edged sword. There are positive sides and some of the hazards. On the one hand, the rapid information dissemination model promotes the development of technology, improve labor productivity, and promote the progress of human history. On the other hand, it also creates good conditions for the dissemination of rumors, making the rumors spread more convenient, more subtle. Once the social life hot events have been spread enlarged or distorted over the network, they tend to form a powerful force of public opinion in a very short time. Due to the huge size of network users, network public opinion, to some extent, represents the public opinion of the community. It has an important impact on the formulation of national policy, non-judgmental. Therefore, the public opinion research has been gotten a very important attention all over the world. However, current researches are lacks of both combination of theory and practical study cases and the cross-over of the social sciences and natural sciences.First, we begin our research from a practical case of network public opinion. We analyze fire incident of the abandoned shelters of Yuan Lihai, occurred in early2013. Based on public opinion cases, we divide the whole network opinion dissemination process into five stages, namely the occurrence phase, outbreak phase, the transitional phase, spreading growth phase and decline phase. Then, with this case, the existing network of public opinion typical propagation model is validated. The results shows that the original model can basically reflect the overall evolution trend of the number of people concerned about the issue, but there is no better able to reflect the dynamic changes in the number of concerns. According to our intuition, in the whole public opinion development process, the number of people concerned about the hot event is fluctuated, but the overall trend is increasing at first, then, decrease gradually. To this end, further propagation model for network public opinion has been proposed to improve the network public opinion propagation model with variable parameters. The results show that the variable dynamic parameters can not only reflect public opinion propagation in the number of participants in the development process of the evolution of the overall trend, but has a better explanation of the dynamic changes in the network of public opinion numbers involved in the development process. Data Simulation results show that in the incidence of public opinion and the outbreak stage the participation rate greater than or equal the degradation rate and the participation rate in the other stages remain less or equal than the degradation rate.Secondly, the spread of public opinion in random networks is conducted in-depth research. A dissemination of public opinion model in random networks is proposed. The results show that the density of a random network, random network node, the signal radius of the node, the node moving speed, the information transmission rate and degradation rate information parameters are closely related to the propagation velocity of the public opinion. If the random network node holds v=2.0km/m and the network keeps node density in40/sq km, the node radius is able to detect the nodes within the range of0.1km, the propagation rate α=1.0and the decay rate is β≤0.16, public opinions can be spread in the random networks. |
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