Shaanxi Factors Influence Decomposition Of Carbon Emissions And Carbon Emissions Forecast

With the comprehensive and rapid development of China’s economic and social, need more and more energy consumption, especially for fossil energy, and given priority to with coal energy consumption structure, leading to carbon emissions continue to rise in our country in recent years, according to the international energy agency (IEA) reported, in2010in China overtook the US to become the largest country in the global carbon dioxide emissions. With the increase of the global greenhouse effect, reducing carbon emissions has become a global goal, our country also put forward to the target of per unit of GDP based on carbon emissions in2005decreased40%-45%in2020.Major energy in China, Shaanxi province has an important role in the country’s energy supply, with its own energy advantages, in recent years, rapid economic development, realize GDP1445.1billion yuan in2012, average annual growth rate of more than14%;As the great destruction of resources and environment, increasing carbon emissions and a series of environmental problems, as a national low carbon pilot provinces, must change the pattern of economic development of Shaanxi province, low carbon economy is the road of circulation economy.Under the background of emission reduction at home and abroad, in Shaanxi province in the12th five-year plan clearly put forward, to2015, based on the carbon emissions per unit of GDP of Shaanxi province in2010fell by17%, to achieve emission reduction targets, it is necessary for us to have a comprehensive analysis about carbon emissions of Shaanxi province. In in this paper, Shaanxi province as the goal, through the present situation of carbon emissions, carbon emissions, driving factors and future carbon emissions were analyzed, and accordingly establish carbon research, a comprehensive system of Shaanxi province to provide reference for the low carbon economy development. The following main conclusions:(1) At first, this paper used the reference method in the calculation of the IPCC carbon, carbon emissions from2003to2012in Shaanxi province were measured and found that carbon emissions of115.6636million tons of Shaanxi province in2012, the average annual growth of around17%, further analysis of coal, oil and natural gas energy carbon emissions, found that the coal accounts for78%of the total emissions of carbon emissions.(2) Using logarithmic average di type decomposition method (LMDI) per capita carbon emissions in Shaanxi province factor decomposition analysis, from the point of effect and accumulated effect year by year, the per capita GDP had the greatest influence on carbon emissions, cumulative contributed72.3%of carbon emissions, and energy structure effect produce31.4carbon emissions, energy intensity accumulation produce3.7%of the negative effects.(3) Through the STIRPAT model for short-term forecasting the future carbon emissions in Shaanxi province, in setting economic growth rate were11%,11.5%,12%,12.5%and13%, five kinds of scenario, to2020in Shaanxi province carbon emissions, respectively for193.139million tons,193.139million tons,208.1081million tons,215.9288million tons and215.9288million tons, and measure to the development situation, to2015, failed to achieve emission reduction of carbon intensity by17%, to further increase the intensity of emission reduction, strengthen the emission reduction measures, and puts forward the corresponding low carbon development path.