Study On The Relationship Between Meteorological Factors And Coronary Heart Disease Acute Attack Of Nanchang

Objective:Analyse the characteristics and regularity of coronary heart disease withNanchang weather conditions, extreme temperature effect on the pathogenesis ofcoronary heart disease are discussed establish the forecast model of Nanchangcoronary heart disease patient number monthly.Methods:The daily coronary heart disease count was obtained from the Level-3A hospitalin Nanchang between January2003and December2010and meteorological datawere collected during the same period. Observe the patients difference amongdifferent seasons, find out the seasonal and monthly pathogenesis regularity; Usingcircular distribution analysis of the annual central tendency of the disease and fouryears total central tendency of the disease; With single factor correlation and multiplestepwise regression analysis on eight major meteorological index, namely the meanmonthly temperature Ta(℃), Hhmean monthly maximum temperature Th(℃), thelowest monthly average temperature T1(℃), monthly average air pressure Pa(hpa),the mean monthly maximum Ph(hpa), the lowest pressure Pl(hpa), monthly averagerelative humidity Ha(%), minimum humidity H1(%)(maximum humidity of100%,is usually not recorded) for8years (03-10) at the same time the influence of coronaryheart disease; A1:1case-crossover design was used to estimate the impact of extremetemperature on coronary disease, cases were the first to third days before the date ofcases (including that very day); controls were fourth to sixth days; Using time seriesanalysis, stability data of the number of coronary heart disease in clinic treatment,then estimated the sequence parameter, January2003to December2009as themodeling data, between January2010and December data to verify the model,simulation of the number of coronary heart disease patient from month to monthARIMA (autoregressive moving average model), the prediction the number of patientvisits of coronary heart disease, in order to arrange for medical and health institutions provide a scientific basis for prevention and treatment of coronary heart disease.Results:(1) During the study period,17498people hospitalized for coronary heartdisease diagnosis. Men10994cases, other else6554cases of women, average agewas (72.46±11.82), the sex ratio of1.67:1.(2) Coronary heart disease has obvious seasonal incidence, high incidence inwinter.(3) In addition to the2005、2007、2010, other years cerebral hemorrhage has theobvious central tendency (P <0.05),8years in total have a central tendency, and theaverage Angle of-0.133degrees (P <0.05), namely the equivalent of on December31，average Angle range95%for December7th-on January22nd.(4) Single factor correlation analysis showed that CHD and negativelycorrelated with Ta, Th, T1(r=-0.196, P <0.05and r=-0.126, P <0.05and r=-0.121,P <0.05), and Ha, Phwere positively correlated (r=0.038, P <0.05and r=0.047, P<0.05). Multiple factor stepwise regression indicate that CHD is associated with Ta、Tl、Hl、Pl.(5) There are305days exposure to extreme temperatures, at a rate of10.44%.Extreme temperatures weather most exposed in2008, at a rate of14.25%.Conditional logistic regression analysis showed extreme low temperature has (OR=1.424,95%CI1.287-1.482), shock temperature differences (OR=1.260,95%CI1.214-1.306)could significantly affect coronary heart diseases and DTR exposure toextreme value (OR=1.337,95%CI1.257-1.424).(6) The coronary heart disease in hospital admissions forecast model includedTaand Pais established: ARIMA (0,1,2)(0,1,1)12, the expression is12ln(CHDt)=0.293εt-1+0.316εt-2+0.868εt-1+0.868×0.293εt-2+0.868×0.316εt-3+0.088Ta+0.055Pa,There is no significant Correlation between model parameters (r=-0.248，r=-0.298，r=0.000), and the residual white noise sequence in line with the white noise(p>0.05), the application of the model in practice was discussed, the prediction andforecast the dynamic trend is consistent with actual situation, and months actualvalues are fall into the predictive value, the model to predict coronary heart diseasetreatment effect is ideal. Conclusion:(1) The incidence of coronary heart disease is seasonal, high incidence inwinter.(2) Coronary heart disease morbidity associated with, temperature、air pressure、atmospheric humidity factors between synergistic or antagonistic role in the bodyaffects the incidence of coronary heart disease.(3) The extreme weather (extreme low temperature、shock temperaturedifferences、DTR exposure to extreme value)in Nanchang may be a risk factor forcoronary heart disease diseases.(4) ARIMA (0,1,2)(0,1,1)12to the pathogenesis of coronary heart diseaseprediction effect is ideal, can be used to predict coronary heart disease in clinic, towarning forecast.