Spatial Analysis And Prediction Of Outpatient Volume Of A Hospital In Changsha

Objectives:To study the territorial source of outpatient and distribution of visiting department in a hospital, to understand the scope of hospital services and the characteristics of sources of outpatient, to master the regularities of the workload of the clinical departments which guide the allocation of medical personnel, to better enhance the construction of specialist hospitals and provide some reference for hospitals orientation.Methods:3years outpatient data were extracted from the hospital HIS system. Using description, analysis, correspondence analysis and seasonal ARIMA method to analyze the basic situation and characteristics of hospital outpatient services, association and forecast the month outpatient volume with SPSS17.0.Results:1) Outpatient volume of Changsha ring is579231(30.36%), while the second ring731193(38.33%), the third ring459136(24.07%), with totally accounting for92.76%of all.2) The most visiting department is specialist department, accounting for13.058%, followed by gynecology(233738,12.253%), simple department(147988,7.758%).3) The most visiting department of each city in Hunan is almost specialist department which accounting for about10%to20%of each city. The top five origin areas of outpatient for specialist department are Loudi(18.76%), Changsha(16.94%), Shaoyang(16.78%), Zhuzhou(11.23%) and Yueyang(11.21%) repectively, where totally accounting for74.92%.4) Most patient come from Hunan, Jiangxi and Hubei orderly.5) The top five department of each city in Hunan are almost specialist department, simple department, gynecology, dermatology, ophthalmology, gastroenterology, otorhinolaryngology.6) With correspondence analysis of various departments and Hunan cities, we can see prevention and health care department (45), nursing(13), rehabilitation17), internal medicine for the elderly(19), medical examination center(32), the wound department (26), pediatric (4), traditional Chinese medicine (47) generally falls on the half-line from origin to Changsha while specialist department (49), gynecology(8), Department of Infectious Diseases(3) gathered together with hunan ring. Cities gather together in accord with regularity of outpatient volume, suggesting that the distance from Changsha may be the main factors that affect the treatment of patients.7) There is12-months cycle regularity in month outpatient volume with minimum month locating on Jan and Feb. Seasonal ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,0) model following square root transformation is applied to fit the curve of month outpatient volume effectively. Predicted upper limit of Jan2003is177888which is close to actual186619.Conclusions:1) Outpatient volume of Changsha ring is30.36%of all, while hunan province’s accounting for92.76%of all.2) The most visiting department is specialist department(13.058%) followed by gynecology(12.253%), simple department147988,7.758%).3) The most visiting department of each city in Hunan is almost specialist department. The top five origin areas of outpatient for specialist department are Loudi, Changsha, Shaoyang, Zhuzhou and Yueyang repectively, which totally accounting for74.92%.4) Result of correspondence analysis imply that there are association among prevention and health care department, nursing, rehabilitation, internal medicine for the elderly, medical examination center, the wound department, pediatric, traditional Chinese medicine..5) Cities gather together in accord with regularity of outpatient volume suggesting that the distance from Changsha may be the main factors that affect the treatment of patients.6) Seasonal ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,0) model following square root transformation is applied to fit the curve of month outpatient volume effectively.