Optimization Of Parameters Of CBR Model And Construction Of Knowledge Base Of The Main Diseases And Pests Of Rice And Wheat

A rolling forecasting model of crop diseases and pests was studied using CBR theory with the time series and a system for diagnosis of wheat and rice diseases and insect pests of Anhui province was developed in this paper. Impact factors and parameters of plant diseases and pests in Anhui province were optimized.Monitoring and prediction of crop pests and diseases is the basis of integrated pest management. A New method, based on case-based reasoning (CBR) in time series data similarity analysis, was studied used in the forecast of crop diseases and pests. The case-based reasoning method solves a new problem by searching the previous similar problems and comparing characteristics and the background between new and old problems to get knowledge and information.The CBR forecasting of main diseases and insect pests of rice and wheat was studied combining with weather characteristics of various ecological regions, geographical location and the happening situation of pest. First, established a time series data case, then constructed the similarity matching specifications and weight parameters according to the specified or preset factors function, and calculated the agreement rate of each historical case, finally selected the history case with the highest agreement rate as prediction conclusions. In addition, the future forecast data can also be added to the target case. CBR forecasting factors and parameters of Wheat scab, wheat powdery mildew, wheat sheath blight, wheat aphids, rice sheath blight, rice blast were optimized, with the percentage of the results’ corresponding to historical data were above80%. And the agreement rate of Wheat scab of great outbreak was about70%.The predicted parameters have certain reliability and can be used as the basis for CBR models to predict crop diseases and insect pests.Knowledge base of diseases and pests of rice and wheat in Anhui province was set up by means of Visual Basic6.0. Written materials and picture data of common diseases and insect pests of rice and wheat in Anhui province were collected, including symptom pictures of different diseases in different crops. Combine the written materials and symptom pictures by computer language to make the recognition and diagnosis easier. Running the system in properly condition, choosing the needed item or inputting necessary information, the users could achieve satisfactory running effect. The knowledge base can offer a reliable basis for the plant protection staff with its characteristics, such as complete types, easy to understand, simple operation, strong practicability.