Comprehensive Evaluation And Decision-making For Transmission Network Planning Alternatives Under Risk Factors

Nowadays security and stability of the power system operation is theprecondition of development of the national economy. In order to achieve themaximum economic interests and social benefits, we need to carry out reasonableplanning of the transmission network structure. If the transmission network planningis not reasonable enough, it will be meaningless and even will have an opposite affectthat will cause serious economic loss and waste of social resources. Therefore, theresearch on transmission network planning becomes more and more important.Transmission network planning is based on load forecast and power planningwhich makes detail and rational schemes. The development of the society makestransmission network planning meet economy, adaptability, sociality, security andreliability at the same time. In addition, a variety of problems in the planning processbring a lot of risks. Such as power, investment, environment, transport capacity etc.Therefore, the risk assessment in advance of planning becomes very important.In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation indexes system of transmissionnetwork planning is set up. This system is based on the construction principles ofevaluation indexes system and various factors are considered. Join the risk indexesthat put forward in this paper and the classic risk assessment indexes into thetraditional indexes system. Because the calculation process of risk indexes istime-consuming, a computer algorithm is proposed to improve this dilemma. In orderto solve the problem of fuzziness and shortcoming of information, a method based ongrey and fuzzy theory is proposed for evaluation and decision-making of transmissionnetwork planning. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of this method is provedby analyzing and evaluating the simulation on18node example.