Water-demand Prediction Methods Of Great-leap Economic Development Area

Water resource is a basic natural resource, as well as a strategic economic resource. Inwater shortage areas, the sustainable water use is of great importance. Reasonable waterallocation is the prerequisite for realizing sustainable use of water, while water demandforecast is an important preparatory task of water allocation.In traditional planning methods, water demand is processed as an exogenous variable,which means only those direct factors affecting water demand are considered but ignoring theinternal relationship of mututual restraint and feedback among socio-economic–waterresources-environmental systems. Many factors should be considered in order to rationallyand accurately forecast water demand, which is subject to macroeconomic, ecological andenvironmental conditions. Water demand under the model of economic development by leapsand bounds also involves policy and cross-penetration of economics, which does not take intoaccount in traditional water demand forecasting method. Therefore, the field blank of waterdemand prediction method for the leap-forward development of regional show its seriousnessand urgency. With the backward countries and regions to seek a breakthrough developmentneeds more and more pressing, that leapfrog economic development model will take placemore frequently, how to scientifically reasonable prediction of water demand in leaps andbounds under the model of economic development has become an important and urgent taskin the current domestic and international.In this paper, through study the socio-economic and water situation of the firstleap-forward economic development in countries and regions, summed up the generallaws of social, economic and water use under the model of leaps and bounds in economicdevelopment. Use system dynamics model as a platform, which reflect the mutual constraintsand feedback between the warious elements, to build the water demand simulation model,couple three subsystems----socio-economic, water and environmental system, and scenariossettings reference the general laws of social, economic and water use under the model of leapsand bounds economic development. In this paper, by Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zonewater demand forecast for example, has been demonstrated that by leaps and bounds model ofeconomic development, water demand forecasting methods are feasible, reliable, and fill the blank of the leap-forward model of economic development water demand prediction method.