Study On Vulnerability Assessment Model Of Chinese Large River Delta Based On Analytic Hierarchy Process

The Delta is a river into the sea or lake waters, due to entrained sediment deposited nearthe estuary area of landforms, most of the fan-shaped accumulation body.In recent decades,theDelta ecological and geological environment change has been the general concern by theworld.Since the1980s,the international and domestic research on the sustainable developmentof the Delta region from the previous disaster management and prediction mode tovulneralibity research.Yellow River Delta,Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are the three goldeneconomic region of China,they have their natural and cultural landscape features.In thispaper,we survey and collect the Inherent Vulneralibity and Unique Vulneralibity data of thethree Delta;then use the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) method as the Delta VulneralibityAssessment Model;and develop the software in the Visual Studio2005environment based onthe C#language and ArcEngine9.2components;at last import the raster layers of the variousfeatures in ARCGIS10to the development system for computing and analysis, and get theDelta Vulneralibity Assessment Figure,and then based on the assessment and analysis of theFigure predict the Delta Vulneralibity,finally get the Forecast Map.Around the theme of the Delta Vulneralibity, the main results are shown as follows:(1)The Inherent Vulneralibity of the Yellow River Delta is very strong, and the siltationof the Yellow River is very serious, resulting in the estuary area showing a strong vulneralibity,and becoming the main factor for changing the Yellow River and the Delta geomorphicchange.(2)The human factors have a strong role of the Yangtze River Delta, so the UniqueVulneralibity of the Yangtze River Delta is very high. Due to the Yangtze River Delta is thegolden zone of the Chinese economic development, human disturbance plays a significantrole, so this is the main factor of the Yangtze River Delta Vulneralibity.(3)The Pearl River Delta is also a strong role of human disturbance, so the UniqueVulneralibity is very high. However, the Pearl Delta has a strong performance on the InherentVulneralibity, especially, typhoon factor is the one natural factor which is most prominentfactor. (4)The Vulneralibity of the three Delta have their own characteristics. The Yellow RiverDelta has more serious on sedimentation, sea erosion, soil salinization; the Yangtze RiverDelta has the buried ancient river; the Pearl River Delta has the frequent typhoon impact andso on.(5)By the forecast map showing, the landforms of the Yellow River Delta changes due tothe sediment deposition, so the Inherent Vulneralibity and the Unique Vulneralibity will bestrong; the change of the Vulneralibity of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta willbe small due to population growth to certain saturation.