Study On The Sustainable Development Of Heilongjiang Province Based On Ecological Footprint Model

Ecological footprint model is one of the representatives of quantitative evaluation for the sustainable development state. In this paper, by consulting Heilongjiang Province statistical yearbook, and as per the current situation of the province, the author builds an ecological footprint model for Heilongjiang Province. For the relevant indicators such as ecological footprint (per capita) of Heilongjiang Province, ecological capacity (per capita), ecological footprint deficit (surplus) and so on, the author builds a RMB10,000GDP ecological footprint (deficit) model, using grey correlation model to analyze the main factors influential to ecological footprint, adopting grey prediction model to forecast the indicators of the ecological footprint model from year2012-2020. The main conclusions of the study are as follows:Since1978, the total ecological footprint of the whole province has increased by the rate of4.402million hm2per year and all kinds of ecological footprint is also increasing. Fossil energy increased at the fast speed. Per capita ecological footprint of the province increased from1.4832hm2to5.0789hm2in2011, increasing by3.5957hm2per capita, namely242.43%. The rank regarding the rate of contribution for ecological footprint is:fossil energy land> cultivated land> constructive land> water area> grassland>forest land.The ecological capacity decreased from79.9523million hm2in the year1978to77.7937million hm2in the year2011. The rank in2011regarding the rate of contribution is:forest land> cultivated land> water area>fossil energy land>grassland>constructive land. After1993. there has always been the state of ecological deficit. For each land type, the water area and forest land in Heilongjiang Province are in the state of ecological surplus. The10.000yuan GDP ecological footprint of the province declined year by year, falling from26.5564hm2/ten thousand yuan GDP to1.55hm2/ten thousand yuan GDP. The efficiency of resources use in Heilongjiang has been improved significantly. After1994. the ten thousand yuan GDP ecological deficit is expanding. The development ability of the province is fluctuating and increasing. Analyzing the relationship between per capita ten thousand yuan GDP of Heilongjiang province and the development capability indicators to find that, they are related, the correlation degree is0.668. The sequence of the grey correlation degree between the per capita ecological footprint of six land types in Heilongjiang Province and the per capita ecological footprint of the whole province is:r01>r03>r01>r02>r06. The prediction model shows the growth speed of future Heilongjiang per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological capacity is divided into fast and slow. The per capita ecological deficit in the province will grow.